Three NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday, January 12
Player props can be useful in various ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) or measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Caris Levert Under 20.5 points (-116)
LeVert has blossomed into a full-fledged superstar in 2021. He’s averaged 18.4 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game this season, and he’s carried a massive workload with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving out of the lineup.
That said, Durant is now back for the Nets, which is going to have an impact on LeVert’s scoring output. LeVert posted a usage rate of just 24.4% in his last game, which is a far cry from his average of 38.7% with Durant and Irving out of the lineup. He did manage to score 21 points in Durant’s first game back in the lineup, but he shot the ball well from the field. If he sees some regression on today’s slate, he should struggle to score more than 20 points.
Stephen Curry Over 29.5 points (+100)
Curry has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but this number seems too low. He’s scored at least 30 points in five of his past eight games, and he’s averaged 30.9 points per game over that time frame. He’s coming off just 11 points in his last contest, but he shot a dreadful 2-16 from the field. Curry is obviously a much better shooter than that, so this feels like a prime buy-low opportunity.
He also has a decent matchup vs. the Pacers. Indiana has been a mediocre defensive team this season – they rank 19th in defensive efficiency – and they’re also playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Most of the Pacers’ starters logged heavy minutes on Monday, and it’s possible that they could rest some players tonight vs. the Warriors. Victor Oladipo, in particular, hasn’t played on a back-to-back in more than two years, so he could be out of the lineup at a minimum.
Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 Assists (+124)
The Spurs are another team that will be playing shorthanded today. DeMar DeRozan will miss his second straight game for personal reasons, which opens up some opportunities for the rest of the roster.
DeRozan is known more as a scorer, but he has actually been the Spurs’ top distributor this season. He’s averaged 7.0 assists per game, so his absence leaves a hole as a playmaker in particular. Johnson is one of the players who should fill that void. He’s increased his assist rate by +3.8% with DeRozan and Derrick White off the court this season, resulting in an average of 4.1 assists per 36 minutes. He played 33.7 minutes in the Spurs last game, so I like the idea of grabbing the over at better than even money.