Three NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday, January 5
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) or measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot Over 3.5 rebounds (+124)
Luwawu-Cabbarot has developed into a solid role player for the Nets recently. He’s started each of the past four games, and he’s averaged 27.7 minutes per game over that time frame. He hasn’t exactly been a monster on the glass, but he has hit the over on 3.5 rebounds in two of those contests.
The bigger news for TLC is that Kevin Durant will be unable to suit up due to health and safety protocols. Not only will that solidify his minutes, but it should also give him a boost in the rebounding department. He’s increased his rebound rate by +1.5% with Durant off the court this season, resulting in an average of 4.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. He probably won’t see that much playing time tonight, but he did play 39.9 minutes in his first game without Durant this season.
Brandon Clarke Under 6.5 rebounds (-100)
Clarke has recorded seven rebounds in three of his first six games, but this line feels a smidge high vs. the Lakers. The Lakers have been the third-best team in the league in terms of Offensive Efficiency this season, and they’ve also played at a below-average pace. That combination means that there won’t be as many opportunities as usual for Clarke to grab defensive rebounds.
When Clarke does find himself in a rebounding situation, he’ll have to contend with one of the best rebounding teams in the league. The Lakers have grabbed 53.1% of available rebounds this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in basketball. Add it all up, and I think the under is presenting decent value.
Gary Harris Over 9.5 points (-106)
Harris looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot the ball poorly over his past two games, shooting just 16.7% from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range. Those marks are obviously well below his career averages.
Harris should also benefit from the absence of Michael Porter Jr. He’s averaged 19.5 points per game this season, so there are some additional shot attempts to go around with Porter Jr. out of the lineup. Harris has seen a slight bump in usage with Porter Jr. off the court this season, and he also played 35.6 minutes in the first game that Porter missed. With some better shooting luck, he should be able to cruise over 9.5 points.
This matchup vs. the Timberwolves seems like the perfect spot for Harris to break out of his slump. They rank just 28th in Defensive Efficiency to start the season, and the Nuggets are currently implied for 119.25 points.