NBA DFS Picks: ATL-east The Frontcourt
NBA DFS Picks: ATL-east The Frontcourt
Christmas is approaching and undoubtedly you'll be hearing about the Island of Misfit Toys sometime soon. Most of the players I've listed below fit into that category this season. They're underpriced, not as good as they once were, unwanted DFS commodities (I'm exaggerating, get over it). Take a trip down memory lane and put some of these guys in your lineup tonight.
PG: John Wall
Yes, I'm looking past Jeff Teague, even against a terrible Lakers team. Yes, I'm buying in a tad bit to the recency bias of Wall's last few games. You should too. Wall is priced well below where we'll eventually see him this season all as a result of his slow start to the season. His per 36 numbers have taken a dip in assists and rebounds, but I expect those numbers to regress back towards the mean as his game gets going. His usage rate has climbed (28.6), as he's now in the top 15 in the league in that category.Add in the fact that he'll be playing an uptempo game at home, that should stay relatively close and you have no reason to fade him, especially if you're multi-entering GPPs. His turnover numbers have gone up, but that shouldn't concern you on DraftKings where turnovers are only -.5. He's got a juicy price, for an immense upside.
SG: James Harden
No brainer, right? Did you see earlier this week that Harden actually asked for a minutes reduction? That isn't a great thing to see for DFS players, but I don't suspect that news like that is going to be incredibly detrimental to his overall play. Harden is the Houston Rockets, literally, he is the whole team. He owns the league's third highest usage rate, and despite shooting career lows from the field and beyond the arc, he's still chucking up 19 shots per 36 minutes. Keep in mind, Harden hasn't reached Kobe-like levels of awfulness shooting the ball this year, and he's going to stuff the stat sheet (he averages six rebounds and assists per game). Again, he's a turnover monster, averaging over four per game, but I'm not as concerned with turnovers on DraftKings. Another small side note that I've picked up from doing the weekly GPP recaps is that Harden most often appears to be the stud with the lowest ownership percentage. I'm not sure if it can be attributed to the lack of options at his position creating a grasp at value, or if he's just overlooked on nights where a bunch of other studs are on the slate.
SF: Carmelo Anthony
Have you forgotten about Carmelo Anthony? The craze in New York right now is rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis, but don't forget Carmelo is a Knick still. Much like John Wall, I think this is the lowest price we're going to see Carmelo Anthony, as he's taken a dip from where he started the season. He's been essentially the picture of inconsistency, he's volatile as a shooter, despite owning a top-15 usage rate and averaging nearly 20 attempts per game. His rebounding rates have “rebounded” from a slight dip last season and while he isn't going to pull down 20 boards or rack up a ton of assists, his shot attempts and seven rebounds a game will keep him at a reasonable floor. The Nets are a bad, bad team and will push the tempo a tad for the Knicks in which should be a lower scoring, but close game. I think Melo shows up tonight.
PF: Paul Millsap
You didn't think I was going to go the whole piece without recommending someone against the Lakers did you? Millsap is one of my favorite DFS plays because of his ability to produce on so many levels. The Hawks are a fairly balanced team, and although there isn't one hungry mouth to feed, Millsap is the one they lean on. If you're not convinced of his awesomeness, take a look at his per 36 numbers:
19.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.2 blocks.
The sad part is, against the Lakers, Millsap might not get to 36 minutes, yet, he also might not need it. The Hawks are double-digit favorites at home against a terrible Lakers squad in a game sporting a total just over 200. Millsap fits perfectly alongside Melo and Wall in this “priced below production” spectrum. Please take advantage. I'm begging you!
C: Al Horford
Yep, I'm double dipping with the Hawks frontcourt. Horford has played second, or maybe even third fiddle for this Hawks team, but it doesn't really matter against the Lakers. Literally everyone on this Hawks team is going to eat them alive!!!!! Horford is priced perfectly on DraftKings for this matchup as he's not priced highly enough to be worried about the blowout. His usage has dipped in the last few seasons (thanks to the arrival of Millsap) but he's still averaging over 18 points a game and over 15 field goal attempts per 36 minutes. His price has been in a steady decline, but take advantage tonight. I'm guessing the Hawks want to punish the Black Mamba on his way out.
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