10 Things to Know Before Making Your NFL DFS Week One Picks
1. Antonio Gibson is just $4000 on DraftKings Dot Com.
The rookie RB will be pivotal to the main slate as a source of salary relief and has been drafted as high as the 6th round in recent fantasy leagues. He is a perfect fit for the PPR format but how many touches to project still remains a bit of a cloud. Washington will have Gibson, JD McKissic, Peyton Barber and Bryce Love on their roster and monitoring inactives could be important to understanding how large of a committee to expect.
2. Tom Brady plays Drew Brees in the Superdome
The matchup is the highest game total on the slate and is projected within one touchdown which could mean back and forth action. While the RB situation in Tampa has become murky with the addition of Leonard Fournette, the most important question is whether Brady will continue to pepper Godwin and Evans or run a more diverse offense like he did in New England. When looking to game stack, TB-NO needs to be in your mix.
3. Cam Newton plays at home vs the Dolphins
Tons of questions for the Patriots, but it is now confirmed that Cam Newton will be the starter. The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. The questions on Cam’s rushing expectation and the Patriots wide receiver targets beyond Edelman should give us the chance to get a low owned Cam which seems worthwhile for tournaments.
4. Marquise Brown is practically free on Fanduel
Week one of 2019 Hollywood Brown broke the slate at less than one percent ownership. Week one of 2020 Hollywood Brown should be the most popular wide receiver on Fanduel at a price of $5900. Brown makes Lamar stacks uber affordable. The only pause for tournament players is whether Brown’s probability of landing on the optimal lineup will be offset by his popularity in large field tournaments.
5. George Kittle faces the flowchart narrative
In 2019, no team allowed more fantasy points to the tight end position than the Arizona Cardinals who allowed 75% more than the league average. Enter, George Kittle. The departure of Manny Sanders and injuries to promising rookie Brandon Aiyuk and 2nd-year starter Deebo Samuels has opened up questions for San Francisco at every position except the tight end. On a slate that features no Travis Kelce, Kittle is the obvious spend at the position.
6. Adrian Peterson tanks Detroit’s RB Value
For a short period of time, Kerryon Johnson was a possible RB value pivot However, the arrival of Adrian Peterson tanks the value of this backfield and if D’Andre Swift were to dress you need to stay away entirely.
7. The Rivers-lead Colts have an elite team total
It is hard to imagine Rivers being a popular option but it is worth noting that the Colts team total ranks up there with the Saints and 49ers in the non-Lamar Jackson division. Questions at RB (Mack / Taylor / Hines) and wide receiver (Campbell, Pittman) should leave Colts stacks as secondary considerations.
8. Lamar Jackson Plays Cleveland
Our 2020 Stacking Guide noted that Lamar put up 20+ points in fourteen of the Ravens games. In those games, he brought a lot of others along for the ride. Hollywood Brown (14%) and Mark Andrews (29%) should be obvious pairs but Mark Ingram (36%) was a surprisingly big beneficiary of Lamar ceiling weeks.
9. It is Showdown SZN
2020 Showdown open with Houston at Kansas City and the popular format should be even bigger in 2020, as the NBA, NHL and MLB will eventually vacate the mid-week schedule creating even more demand for Showdown offerings. We have you covered with premium podcasts, lineup construction advice and Showdown strategy from the game’s best.
10. Week one produces outlier results even before factoring in the lack of preseason games
Last year’s most popular ten wide receivers put up just 10-14 DraftKings points. Meanwhile, none of the ten highest-scoring wide receivers were more than 6 percent owned by the field. John Ross (37.8), Marquise Brown (33.7), DJ Chark (27.6) and Terry McLaurin (26.5) all put up massive weeks at less than one percent ownership.
With no fans in the stadiums, we could see away teams run smoother two-minute drills or a variety of other impacts. Week one is a good opportunity to play contrarian, particularly at the wide receiver and tight end position.
- Monday: GPP Recaps, Premium Showdown Analysis with Drewby
- Tuesday: First Look and Injury Analysis with Pacheco
- Wednesday: AutoMattek Absolutes with Davis Mattek
- Thursday: Premium Showdown Analysis with Drewby with 3-Max / Single Entry strategy with Justin Bailey
- Friday: NFL Simulations and Game Theory with Hotmajik
- Friday-Saturday: DailyRoto Main Slate Rundown
- Sunday: Lineup Alerts and Premium Showdown Analysis