3 Best Josh Allen Prop Bets for Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game
There's a pretty strong case to be made that Josh Allen's unexpected leap was the most important development of the 2020 NFL season. It was certainly one of the most surprising storylines, as few analysts believed Allen would go from below-average QB to MVP-caliber passer in just one season.
3. Josh Allen – Passing Yards: Over 302.5 (-112)
Allen has been on an absolute tear, eclipsing this total in three of his past five starts. And he likely would've gone five-for-five were it not for some unique circumstances. In Week 17, Allen put up 224 passing yards in the first half before being pulled in the second half in a blowout against the Miami Dolphins. Last week, the Bills' franchise passer faced a top-10 pass defense by DVOA in some rather extreme conditions. The weather in Kansas City won't be perfect on Sunday, but it shouldn't be nearly as bad as it was last week. Plus, the Chiefs' secondary is nowhere near as good as the Ravens', sitting No. 16 by DVOA.
2. Josh Allen – Rushing Yards: Over 33.5 (-118)
Allen's mobility could pose a huge problem for the Chiefs' defense. Kansas City has the league's second-worst run defense by DVOA and allowed Allen to rack up 42 yards on 8 carries the last time these two met. Allen has also reached at least 33 rushing yards in three of the last four games he both started and finished. Plus, the Bills have no problem abandoning the traditional running game when they feel the need to. Devin Singletary has had fewer than 10 carries in five of his last six appearances, recording 38 total rushes in that time. Allen has 33 carries in that same span. With RB Zack Moss out, don't be surprised to see Allen carry the load as a runner on Sunday.
1. Josh Allen – Interception: No (+108)
One of the most impressive parts of Allen's game is his ability to be a dynamic, explosive playmaker without getting reckless with the football. He has thrown just one interception in his last five outings, and that came against the Dolphins, who had a top-six pass defense by DVOA. Even more impressively, Allen has been particularly careful with the football when playing on the road. He hasn't thrown an INT on the road since he faced the Arizona Cardinals in mid-November, and he currently boasts a streak of 128 consecutive passes on the road without an INT. Kansas City's defense is as opportunistic as it gets, but Allen just hasn't been making the big mistake recently – especially not on the road.
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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.