Best Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is on the verge of making NFL history. The long-time Chief is having a career-year with over 1,300 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Kelce is averaging almost 95 yards through the air per game and is just 60 yards away from the record books. With those yards, he’d get to 1,378 on the season to break George Kittle’s single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end.
Don’t think Kelce got those gaudy numbers from just making a few catches, either. In addition to big yardage, the former Cincinnati Bearcat is just two receptions away from the century mark this season. The 100-catch mark in a season has only been reached by a tight end five times in NFL history, with one of them being Kelce in 2018. So only four other NFL players have ever done what Kelce has and is on the verge of doing again.
The 31-year-old even has an outside shot of catching Zach Ertz’s 2018 NFL record of 118 catches by a tight end in a single season. Sure, Kelce would need back-to-back ten catch games, which is tough but not impossible. The Chiefs TE has a ten catch performance this year to go along with one nine catch game and seven contests with eight receptions. Now that’s consistency.
Atlanta is a great team to keep that consistency going against, as they’ve been awful against the pass all year. The Falcons are one of just two teams to allow over 4,000 pass yards this season. In addition to yards, Atlanta is giving up plenty of catches too. Opposing teams are making almost 27 receptions a game against the Falcons, third-worst in the league.
The NFC South team hasn’t been much better defending the middle of the field. Atlanta has given up the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends in the league.
The Chiefs may try to utilize Kelce even more than usual. Equally, because of the roster, they are going against and the roster they may end up fielding. Lead running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out with an ankle sprain and hip strain. Less depth in the backfield could motivate KC to run less and throw more against Atlanta on Sunday.
Top wide receiver Tyreek Hill is also banged up. The Chiefs’ number one deep threat is nursing a hamstring injury and questionable on the injury report. Hill is expected to play, but if he’s limited or misses snaps, Patrick Mahomes may further key in on Kelce.
The Pick: Over 6.5 receptions (-134)
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has been bringing the pain on opposing defenses since revitalizing the Eagles offense a few weeks ago. Carson Wentz looked about as bad as a quarterback has looked this season in the NFL, making Philly’s attack look more like a zombie movie than a pro offense.
Since taking over, Hurts shocked the Saints running for 126 yards in the Week 14 upset win. He followed that up by taking the Cardinals to the limit in Arizona while having his best game as a pro. Hurts passed for over 300 yards, threw three touchdowns, and had a QB rating of 102. That’s just what he did in the air. The Eagles quarterback also ran for 63 yards on 5.7 per carry and scored a rushing touchdown.
Expect Philadelphia to continue the focus on the run against a terrible Cowboys defense. Dallas is giving up a league-worst 161.8 rush yards per game. The next closest team is giving up more than ten yards less per game than the Cowboys are. They are also tied for an NFL worst five yards per carry and have given up the most rushing first downs in the league.
Running backs aren’t doing all the damage against the Cowboys on the ground either. Quarterbacks have made some noise in the run game, pulling off the ninth-highest yards per attempt average in the league.
The Cowboys improved pass defense could be another motivator for Hurts to run whenever he can. After getting lit up through the air early in the season, Dallas has been able to answer the call against the aerial attack. Giving up just 221 yards a game has vaulted the Cowboys to a No. 8 ranking against the pass this year.
The Pick: Over 55.5 rushing yards (-142)