Bet the Rams to Cover?
This line has come off of seven, despite the majority of the action on Green Bay. The Packers are going to be the most publicly bet side of the week. For certain, the wise guy immediately bet the under in this one; that’s where the sharp money is at under 47 points. They went under 46, under 46.5, and then the piggybackers jumped in on their 46. That’s why the total is 45 right now. The public will probably bet the game over if the weather isn’t atrocious, which it’s not supposed to be. So the line may go back up. The under is the play here, with the first half under looking even better, even more, because a lot of junk points late.
Here’s why the spread moved off the seven. It makes sense because you can’t power rate Green Bay as a seven-point favorite over the Rams. You add in the bye week and add in the injuries, adding that the Rams now have to travel from Seattle, win outright, go to Green Bay, and two of the most challenging venues in all of sport. You factor all that in, and you can’t power rate them all the way up to -7 unless Aaron Donald is out, which doesn’t look like it will be the case. Sure, the quarterback situation’s shaky for the Rams, and they’re not a hundred percent, but that’s already baked into the cake. There’s some value on the Ram side at +7.
With that said, the Packers teaser is very attractive. Many people are teasing Green Bay, and it’s hard to disagree with them, but I don’t think this offense will have as easy a time of it against this Rams defense. That’s going to put pressure on the quarterback, and more importantly, the Rams have a good secondary. Three of those guys back there are top 20 cornerbacks in the NFL. It’s not going to be as easy of an afternoon for Aaron Rodgers. The line move makes sense so far, and the under and the Rams to cover are the plays.