We've got a pair of Florida 4-7 teams matchup up this Sunday at TIAA Bank Field as the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jaguars look to snap out of the downward spiral that started three weeks ago when Nick Foles returned to the lineup.
Let's take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -126
Jacksonville Jaguars: +110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5: -110
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5: -110
Over 47.5: -105
Under 47.5: -115
Key Points to Consider
In God(win)'s Hands: Tampa Bay is coming off a strong win, their second in three weeks, as they got a 13-point win vs Atlanta after being listed as 3.5-point underdogs. WR Chris Godwin had his best performance yet as he finished with 184 yards on 7 receptions for 2 TDs.
Weakness: Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has been horrible vs zone coverage this year, throwing 14 INTs so far vs zone defenses. He has just a 40.6 percent completion percentage against the Cover 3 defense, league-worst heading into this weekend. He has a league-high 24 turnovers so far this season.
Run Defense: Jacksonville's biggest issue this year -- and there have been plenty -- is the inability to stop anything on the ground. Their run defense, No. 29 in the league as of this week, is allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, Over the last three games, all of which have been losses, the Jaguars are giving up close to 34 points per game.
For the Buccaneers, Jameis Winston is projected to finish with 316 passing yards on 26 completions. He averages 2.6 TDs and 1.7 INTs per sim.
For the Jaguars, Nick Foles is projected to finish with 221 passing yards on 19 completions. He averages 1.9 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.
Jaguars to cover.
Three-star (out of four) hot trend pick. Whereas offshore odds makers have Tampa Bay as the favorites, Jacksonville wins more simulations. We're always interested when odds and sim data are on opposite sides of the money line. Average score in sims us 27.4 - 25.5, in favor of the Jaguars.
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