Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Game Info
Buffalo Bills (11-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-8)
Date: Monday, December 28, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Bills (-320) | Patriots (+260)
Spread: Bills -7 (-108) | Patriots +7 (-112)
Total: Over 46.5 (-106) | Under 46.5 (-114)
Super Bowl Odds: Bills (+1000) | Patriots (NA)
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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots News and Notes
It’s a passing of the torch game in New England as the Bills take the AFC East and break the Patriots’ 11-year division title streak. Buffalo will be looking to not only take the flame but burn the Pats up in this statement game. While Buffalo has already wrapped up their first division title since 1995, they’ll still be looking to sweep their bitter rivals for the first time in 21 years.
Of course, the biggest reason the Bills have looked better than they have in two decades is MVP candidate Josh Allen’s play. Allen is coming off his fourth AFC Offensive Player of the Week honor after carving the Broncos for 359 yards to go along with two touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. The Bills dominated Denver 48-19 last Saturday to finally end their division title drought.
Allen has been great all year, putting up career-bests with over 4,000 yards, 30 touchdown passes, and a 104.2 QB rating. In just his third season, the seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft is fifth in passing yards and top-ten in touchdown passes and rating. Most importantly, Allen’s led Buffalo to 11 wins and has a chance at tying the Bills record for victories in a season.
It hasn’t been all Allen as Stefon Diggs’s addition has paid enormous dividends for the Bills. After being traded from Minnesota, Diggs is all over the league’s leaderboards in his first season with Buffalo. The former Viking is tied for first in receptions with 111 on the year with a game in hand on co-share leader DeAndre Hopkins. Diggs has also put up a career-high 1,314 receiving yards, ranking him third in the league, and is tied for second with 150 targets this season.
Largely thanks to the Allen/Diggs duo, Buffalo boasts the NFL’s second-ranked passing offense (278.5 yards per game) and fifth-ranked scoring offense (29.1 points).
The Bills defense deserves some credit as well, landing in the upper half of the league in points and yards allowed, interceptions and sacks. They also are ranked No. 8 in forced fumbles, top-ten in defensive touchdowns, and eighth in total tackles.
New England is basically running out the clock on the disappointing season. The rebuilding Patriots may even give Jarrett Stidham the start at quarterback over Cam Newton. The former league MVP has not been able to get the passing game going all year. Newton was held without a touchdown pass for the eighth time this season in last week’s loss to Miami. The former Panther has just five touchdown passes against ten interceptions in 328 attempts this season.
The Patriots rank dead last in passing touchdowns and have the third-worst pass yards per game average. They are also the sixth lowest-scoring team in the league, putting up just over 20 points a game.
New England is also extremely banged up going into this one with Buffalo. Twenty players were limited in Thursday’s practice, including leading rusher Damien Harris. The Pats will have to attempt stopping Allen’s high-powered Buffalo offense with the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Stephon Gilmore was placed on injured reserve earlier in the week and will miss the rest of the season.
When healthy, New England has had one of the stingiest defenses in the league. The Patriots rank fifth, allowing just 212 pass yards per game and a top-ten defense in points and total yardage.
Conversely, New England has struggled against the run this season. The Pats are giving up over 130 yards per game on the ground, which is seventh-worst in the league.
Buffalo is still looking to lock up the number two seed in the AFC, so don’t expect them to take this game off. They still have plenty to play for in addition to want to stick it to their long-time division rivals.
Although the Bills got by New England earlier this season, they did not cover. In fact, Buffalo has only covered twice in their past eight meetings with the Pats. Granted, Tom Brady led many of those teams, and Josh Allen was still in college, but it’s still something to think about.
It’s going to be a cold, windy night in Foxborough, with temperatures expected to reach below 25 degrees. It’s never easy to play in New England in the dead of winter where the freezing temperatures can cool off the hottest offense, so the Bills passing game may not be quite as active as usual.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Predictions and Picks
- Patriots cover +7 (-112)
- Under 46.5 total points scored (-114)
- Patriots under 19.5 points scored (-114)
- Stefon Diggs under 7.5 receptions (-146)
- Zack Moss over 40.5 rushing yards (-112)
- Devin Singletary over 35.5 rushing yards (-112)
- Bills are 6-0 against the spread in their past six games.
- Underdog is 3-0-1 against the spread in their past four head-to-head meetings.
- Under is 6-0 in Patriots past six games.
Prediction: Bills 23, Patriots 17