Christmas Day Vikings-Saints Prop Bets
When there’s reverse contrarian line movement, we turn our attention to prime time props! This line opened with the New Orleans Saints favored by 7. The line has moved against New Orleans, making the Minnesota Vikings just 6.5-point underdogs despite over 70% of bets on the Saints. This is a stay away spot for me on the spread.
Drew Brees Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-118)
I could end the argument for betting this over with one sentence. When Saints quarterback Drew Brees starts an entire game, he has hit this number in all but two games this season. The two games where Brees did not hit this over were week one against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30 pass attempts) and the Saints fourth game of the season versus the Detroit Lions (25 pass attempts).
As much as Saints running back Alvin Kamara always seems to be “the play” in the props market, he’s really not. Kamara hasn’t had a combined rushing and receiving 100-yard game since Nov. 1 against the Bears. With Kamara averaging 11.8 carries per game, I am going to continue looking to Brees to throw the ball.
Kirk Cousins Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-112)
As you may be able to tell, the pass attempts prop is one of my favorites. I hate relying on receivers to catch the ball. This rule applies to most teams, but not the Vikings. I trust the Minnesota receivers more than I trust their quarterback. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has hit this over 21.5 pass completions prop in six straight games.
Minnesota’s rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson has the eighth-most receiving yards in the NFL this season with 1,182. Vikings veteran receiver Adam Thielen has caught the third-most touchdowns in the league with 13 despite missing one game due to landing on the COVID list. I wouldn’t mind taking Cousins over 31.5 pass attempts either, but I trust the Vikings receivers to hold onto the ball.
Kirk Cousins Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-134)
This stat could go underrated for the pocket passing quarterback. Cousins has hit this over in four straight games and by a large margin in three of them. He has accrued rushing yards of 25, 41, 12, and 19 in the last month. Last week, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes rushed for 37 yards against the Saints. The week prior, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts picked up 106 yards on the ground. Is it a little desperation on Cousins’ part? Maybe. However, this could also be a newly discovered Vikings trick considering the number of weapons on the Vikings. With two No. 1 caliber receivers and the second-best running back in the NFL in Dalvin Cook, all it takes is running for one or two first downs to hit this low number.