Conference Championship NFL Prop Bets
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND PROPS
Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling longest rec. o16.5 (-134)
The way to take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is by attacking their pass defense. The Bucs are 21st against the pass allowing 246.6 yards in the air per game. It’s easy to look to Davante Adams and hope he has a big game with his receiving yards prop. However, that market is so sharp on a No. 1 receiver this time of year. I’d rather go to a smaller market such as the longest reception prop.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit over 16.5 yards for his longest reception nine times this season. Plus, Tampa has allowed at least three receivers to hit this over in 12 different games. Allen Lazard had the big game last week, going for 96 receiving yards. I think we see the deep ball go back to Valdez-Scantling this week.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers o2.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
Again, we’re attacking the Achilles heel of the Bucs defense. Out of all playoff teams left, Tampa Bay allows the most passing touchdowns on a per-game basis, with teams averaging 1.8 thrown touchdowns per game. Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with 48 passing touchdowns in the 2020 regular season. Rodgers has hit over 2.5 thrown touchdowns in 12 of 17 games played. If there’s any matchup to attack for passing touchdowns, it’s this one. You’re getting the playoff team who allows the most passing touchdowns of the teams left on the board, facing the quarterback who has the most thrown touchdowns in the NFL. The Bucs are also the No. 1 run defense in the league, which is why I think the Packers could be staying away from the ground game.
Bills QB Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+130)
Speaking of the ground game, the Kansas City Chiefs struggle against the run. Kansas City ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game with 122.1. The Bills’ offense started to establish the run more until rookie running back Zack Moss suffered a season-ending left ankle injury. That leaves the Bills with lead back Devin Singletary, who has 687 rushing yards this season. The player with the second-most rushing yards on the team, Josh Allen. More importantly for this prop, Allen leads Buffalo with eight touchdowns on the ground. Singletary only has two. Against a team Allen rushed for 42 yards against back on Oct. 19, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Allen use his legs.