How to Bet Tua Tagovailoa’s Player Props
We all know this by now, but it’s Tua Tagovailoa time.
Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing (slightly) above the NFL average in per-play efficiency based on our metrics, but the path for Tua is now wide open.
FanDuel Sportsbook, naturally, has posted some props on Tua’s rest-of-season numbers as well as the recipient of his first touchdown pass.
Let’s dig in.
|Tua Tagovailoa Props
via FanDuel Sportsbook
This works out to whether or not Tua averages 200 yards passing and 1.15 passing touchdowns over the final 10 games (but let’s not forget that he has 9 passing yards already, so he’s 0.45% to 2,000 yards!).
numberFire projects Tua for 2,239.4 passing yards and 13.6 passing touchdowns, so we clearly view the over as the better bet. Our algorithm projects Tagovailoa for around 112% of his yardage over/under and around 118% of his touchdown over/under based on the median projections.
When simulating out the season 10,000 times based in numberFire’s projections, Tagovailoa surpassed his yardage over/under an astounding 85% of the time and his passing touchdown total 74% of the time.
With projections so far above the over/unders, it’s hard to nitpick and make cases for the under. He does face top-12 adjusted pass defenses (based on our metrics) in 5 of 10 matchups but also has 4 matchups against bottom-10 opponents. Further, the Dolphins won’t face any opponent twice under Tua’s reign because they have already played each of their divisional opponents once before their bye.
The recommendation is clearly on the over.
There are also odds on who catches his first touchdown, and that’s more wide open.
|Receiver of Tua’s First Touchdown
via FanDuel Sportsbook
There’s obvious volatility in projection who scores first, but DeVante Parker is projected for 22.4% of the remaining receiving scores among these options, on par with his odds of +340. Mike Gesicki has a little less value among the two favorites, but both are very much in play. Similar value looks to be there for Preston Williams, who is listed at +550.
The long-shot value that’s most intriguing is Durham Smythe. He’s projected to score 7.7% of the remaining touchdowns but has odds (+3200) that suggest he’s only 3.0% likely to catch Tagovailoa’s first touchdown.