Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Can America’s Team Climb Back to .500?
This second game on the Monday Night Slate may not be as juicy as the first one, but it’s still shaping up to be a great game. The 3-2 Arizona Cardinals travel to play the host Dallas Cowboys, who are a bit surprisingly only 2-3 at this time.
Let’s dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Just Like the First Game, Points! Points! Points!
It may be a bit shocking, but with an over/under set at 54.5 points, and a quarterback replacement for the Cowboys in Andy Dalton thanks to a horrific injury to Dak Prescott, the offense could seemingly be in a bit of a flux.
But, that’s not why Jerry Jones and company signed the veteran signal-caller — while his $3 million deal may seem small, it’s actually more in guaranteed money than what Cam Newton received from the New England Patriots. And he proved himself adequate enough last week with Prescott out of the game.
If we look at our power rankings, the ‘Boys are going to need all of the red-head’s magic with their third-worst defense in the league. The Kyler Murray-led Arizona offense has been solid in their own right this season, and they’ve scored at least 21 points in every game.
Pace will definitely be our friend as we attempt to hit this over, as the Cowboys lead the league in situation-neutral pace, while the Cardinals clock in solidly at fourth. Factor in that the Cowboys would have smashed this over/under in every game but their season-opener and this looks like a safe play.
Bets to Consider
So far, bettors seem a bit undecided on who to back. While 58% of bets have come in on Arizona, 51% of all cash has come in on the home Cowboys.
Just like bettors are confused, our algorithm thinks this one is a bit of a toss-up, too. We expect the home favorites to win 51.2% of the time, and a 1.0-point spread for the home team has a likelihood of only 48.82% of being covered as well. It also thinks that over/under is a bit lofty, with a 60.39% chance of the under hitting in this contest.
A really interesting single-game parlay could be on the Dallas Cowboys side. Keep in mind that despite not suiting up this week, Dak Prescott still leads the NFL in passing yards — and the FanDuel Sportsbook has placed an over/under on Dalton passing yards at 286.5. While it seems obvious that the Cowboys are likely to give the rock to Ezekiel Elliott quite a bit, pairing Dalton’s passing yards with his passing touchdowns (over/under set at 1.5) could make for a fun play.
Historical Betting Trends
— Both teams were solid yet unspectacular in 2019 from an against-the-spread (ATS) perspective. The Cardinals rocked a 9-5-2 mark, while the host Cowboys weren’t too shabby at 9-7.
— Despite their perplexing numbers, the Cards have been really on the road from an ATS perspective, logging an 8-2-2 mark over their last 12 games.
— Interesting, ATS bettors taking the Cowboys over their last 5 — they’ve failed to cover in all of them.
— Surprisingly, despite a very paced-up offensive, Arizona has gone 4-0-1 to cover the under in their last 5 games.