Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Which Struggling AFC East Team Can Get a Win?
Monday Night Football has given us quite a few strong games recently, but this likely isn’t going to be one of them. The New England Patriots, losers of their last four games, are traveling to take on their AFC East rival, the New York Jets, who have lost every game this year by an average of 18 points.
We rank New England as the league’s 18th-best squad, while the Jets check in last.
Let’s dive into what our models think could be some intriguing betting angles for this contest.
Expect the Home Jets to Be Miserable
This is a tale of two teams that have really struggled so far this season. While the Jets are still winless on the season, New England is chartering into unknown territory after losing their last four contests.
While New England has stunk and face an uphill battle to continue their stranglehold on the division, the New York Jets have been getting absolutely smashed. After getting pummeled 35-9 a week ago, that was merely icing on the cupcake. Previously, they were shut out by Miami (24-0) and were waxed the week prior by the Arizona Cardinals (30-10).
Over their last four games, the Jets have averaged only 7.3 points per game, and they covered their first spread of their year against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago.
Interestingly, 65% of bettors and 73% of all bets are slamming in on the Patriots, per oddsFire.
Bets to Consider
Our models definitely support the road team despite how badly they have played recently. We expect them to take the contest 70.9% of the time, making the Patriots moneyline a solid offering.
From a spread perspective, that one looks a little more promising for the Jets — we expected them to cover 9.5 points around 60.78% of the time. Our algorithm marks this as a two-star bet.
From an over/under perspective, given the trouble these teams have had scoring the ball, we like the under to hit 53.79% of the time.
With a potentially negative game script leading to hefty passing volume for the Jets, and Jamison Crowder looking like a solid play tonight, his 52.5 receiving yard prop over at the FanDuel Sportsbook combined with the spread could get juicy. Keep in mind that in three of the four contests that Crowder has suited up in, he’s topped 100 receiving yards.
Historical Betting Trends
— This season, New York has been an awful team to bet on, posting a 1-7 against-the-spread (ATS) mark.
— In recent memory, the Pats have been dominant in this rivalry, rocking a 4-1 ATS mark against New York.
— The Jets have also been a dreadful ATS bet for a while now, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
— Another interesting angle is the under — while it is only 42.5 points, the under has hit in five of the Jets’ last six games.