Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Who’s the Beast of the AFC?
While Thursday Night Football was a snooze-fest in Week 3, Monday night should feature an outstanding contest between two heavyweights in the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. This should be one of the games of the year.
Let’s dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Hammer That Under
We know these are two explosive offenses that can score points in a hurry, and Las Vegas oddsmakers have certainly reflected that, as well. The over/under sits at a hefty 54.5-point total.
Interestingly, though, Patrick Mahomes may have his toughest challenge to date. By his standards, he has been fairly mediocre thus far with just over 500 yards passing across two contests this season. But more importantly, the Ravens’ pass defense has been among the league’s elite units, allowing 411 passing yards total and easily ranking as our best defensive unit. On a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back basis, they’ve allowed -0.17 NEP per pass this season. Woof.
If the Ravens are able to build a lead and continue to pound the ball on the ground, good night to that over. On a situation-neutral pace basis, Baltimore clocks in as football’s fourth-slowest team, and we all know how much they like to run that football.
All that being said, take the under. Our model projects the under happening 69.0% of the time, labeling it a four-star bet.
Other Bets to Consider
Looking at oddsFire, money continues to pour in on Kansas City. 72% of bets and and 69% of money has come in on the Chiefs, who currently sit as 3.5-point underdogs.
Our algorithm begs to differ, giving the host Ravens a 64.7% chance of winning the game and a 51.1% chance of them covering the spread.
From a prop bet perspective, it could be a decent opportunity to bet the under on Mahomes’ passing yards, which currently sits at 293.5 yards at FanDuel Sportsbook.
A fun longshot to consider is J.K. Dobbins. He found the end zone twice in Week 1 (+3100 odds to score two times tonight), and he racked up 61 all-purpose yards in a Week 2 win. Expect him to be a focal point of the offense.
Historical Betting Trends
— This is clearly the cream of the AFC crop from an oddsmakers perspective, as the Chiefs are +275 to win the AFC and Baltimore checks in right behind them at +285.
— Betting on Kansas City to cover has been money in the bank recently, as they have gone 10-1 in their last 11 against the spread (ATS).
— The Ravens, however, aren’t exactly slugs here. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7.
— Baltimore’s ground heavy attack and slow pace leads to some slugfests, and they’ve hit the under four times in their last give games.
— Kansas City was 13-5-1 ATS in 2019; Baltimore was 10-7.