NFL Betting Guide: Week 10
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets
with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting
on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we
use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any
given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager
relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110
spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three
times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Dolphins Moneyline (-120): 3-Star Rating out of 5 Dolphins -1.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Dolphins -1.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
When the Miami Dolphins recently decided to bench Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of rookie Tua Tagovailoa, there were some rumblings of unfairness. Fitzmagic had, after all, led the team to a solid 3-3 start and had gained the trust of his teammates over the last year-plus. Any controversy, however, is now long in the distance. The Dolphins have won their first two games with Tua under center, including an impressive away victory against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9.
The Dolphins are now 5-3 at the midway point of the season, and they’ll look to add to their playoff hopes when they host the Justin Herbert-led Los Angeles Chargers this week. One could point to the 31.0 points per game the Dolphins’ offense has been putting up as the reason for their success, but any talk of their success must include their surprisingly dominant defense.
After allowing a league-worst 30.9 points per game in 2019, the 2020 Dolphins have given up just 20.1, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the fourth fewest in the league. They’ve allowed 17 or fewer points in three of their past four games, and that stinginess will need to be on display against a Chargers offense that has scored at least 26 points in each of their past five games.
This is just the second time the Fins have been favored this season, the other resulting in a 24-0 thumping of the New York Jets. This is the seventh time since the start of last season that the Chargers have been road underdogs. In their previous six contests, they’ve gone 1-5 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS).
Our model likes the Dolphins to walk away with a win in this battle of star rookie quarterbacks. We give Miami a 69.0% chance of winning and a 66.3% chance of covering the 1.5-point spread. We mark both bets as three-star plays.
Raiders Moneyline (-210): 3-Star Rating out of 5 Raiders -4.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Raiders -4.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders come into this week with records of 3-5 and 5-3, respectively. While the Raiders are second in the AFC West, they are the only one of the four teams to remain undefeated within it division, including an impressive 40-32 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Raiders have won three of the past five against the Broncos, going 5-0 ATS in that span. They’ve won their past four home games against them, winning by no fewer than seven points in that span. Vegas is 2-0 SU and ATS this season as favorites. Home teams who have been more than 4.0-point favorites have won 80.4% of their games this season and covered in 55.6% of them. One of the few times a home team didn’t win in that span was when the Raiders beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The Broncos are 3-7 SU as away ‘dogs since the start of last season, though they’ve been outscored by an average of just 3.9 points in those games. Their wins this season have come against opponents who currently have a combined record of just 5-20.
numberFire’s model projects the Raiders to remain undefeated in the AFC West after this week’s divisional clash. We give them a 77.1% chance of winning and a 62.5% chance of covering the 4.5-point spread. We mark both bets as three-star plays.
Over 48.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Points have not been at a premium when the New Orleans Saints have taken the field this season, especially when they’ve had the chance to play at the Superdome. Our model expects nothing less when they host the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers this week.
The Saints and their opponents have put up a healthy average of 53.0 points in Saints away games this year. That number jumps to 58.0 in games in the Superdome, where the over has gone 4-0 and cleared the total by an average of 6.9 points.
The over was just 4-4 in New Orleans last year, and much of the balance was driven by solid performances from the Saints’ defense, which has not been repeated this year. The Saints gave up 22.9 points per game at home during the regular season last year. That has jumped to 27.8 points per game allowed at home this season. They’ve been more dominant against the run, giving up 20.9 fewer rushing yards per game than they did last year, but they’ve allowed an average of 30.2 more yards through the air.
Given the Niners’ injury issues, there could be a concern that they don’t generate enough offense for the over to hit. On that note, the over is just 2-7-1 this season when home teams are favored by more than nine points, as will be the case in this game. The over has failed to hit the past three times the Saints have been favored by that much at home.
Despite those worries, our model projects the over to hit this week. We have the teams projected to combine for 51.9 points in a New Orleans win. We give the over a 58.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.