NFL Betting Guide: Week 15
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets
with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting
on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we
use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any
given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager
relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110
spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three
times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 50.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Led by a strong defense that has the second-most takeaways and is giving up the sixth-fewest yards per game this season, the Indianapolis Colts come into Week 15 at 9-4 and on the verge of cementing a playoff spot. Their opponent this week — the Houston Texans — have not fared so well.
The Texans have generated just eight turnovers on the season (lowest in the league), have given up the second-most yards per game, and come into this week as the fourth-worst defense by our metrics. Coupled with a rushing attack that we have ranked as the league’s worst, the team has gone just 4-9 and has already been eliminated from the playoffs.
These two teams met just two weeks ago in Houston, a 26-20 Colts victory which saw Deshaun Watson throw a pick, lose a fumble, and get sacked five times. One of those sacks resulted in a late-game safety, which sealed the deal for Indianapolis. The under cleared by 4.5 points in that one, and our model is projecting an even lower-scoring affair this time around.
The under has hit in four of the past five meetings between these two AFC South rivals. Those games have seen an average of 41.8 points scored and have boasted an average total of 47.8. The Texans have put up just seven points in two of their past three away games.
Our model projects the teams to combine for 45.0 points this week. We give the under a 65.6% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a three-star play.
Football Team +6.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Winners of their past four games, the Washington Football Team comes into this week’s home game against the Seattle Seahawks at 6-7 and in first place in the NFC East. They’ve held opponents to no more than 17 points in any of those four contests, games in which they’ve generated eight turnovers and 12 sacks.
Their 18 sacks since their Week 8 bye week are tied for the third-most in the league in that time, and the team is now the third-best defense in the league, according to our numbers. Despite their recent defensive-driven success, they’re currently 6.5-point underdogs against the ‘Hawks.
The Football Team has gone 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games as underdogs this season. They’ve given up an average of just 18.8 points in home games this season, which doesn’t bode well for a Seahawks offense that has averaged just 19.5 points in their past two away games, losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Seahawks are on a 0-3-1 ATS streak on the road, and they come into this week as a 6.5-point favorite. Away teams favored by more than six points this season have gone 24-3 straight up but just 11-15-1 ATS.
Our model projects the Seahawks to walk away with a win (cementing a playoff spot), but it has the Football Team keeping things close. We give the Football Team a 54.6% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread and mark a bet on them as a one-star play.
Under 49.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Buffalo Bills have not been synonymous with low-scoring games this season. The team has put up 27.6 points per game, and the over has gone 9-4, clearing the total by an average of 3.2 points. Despite that, numberFire’s model projects the under to hit in their Saturday game against the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos are coming off a 32-point outing in an away win against the Carolina Panthers last week, but that kind of offensive outburst has been a rarity this season. The Broncos’ 19.8 points per game are the fourth-fewest in the league this year, and they’re the second-worst offense in the league, according to numberFire’s metric.
The team has been even more anemic at home this season, putting up just 15.7 points per game. That has led to the under going 4-2 in those games, which have averaged 42.5 points. Despite the low output, this week’s game against Buffalo has a total currently set at 49.5 points, the highest in a Denver home game this season.
Buffalo gave up an average of 26.5 points per game before their Week 11 bye, but since then they’ve given up just 18.7. Our model expects them to give up close to that this week in what we project to be a 26.2-19.5 Bills win. We give the under a 61.2% chance of hitting, and we mark the bet as a two-star play.