NFL Betting Guide: Week 7
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 54.5 (-106): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The betting public is expecting the over to hit in this game. Of the bets coming in on the total, 78% of wagers are backing the over, according to our oddsFire tool. But there’s some sharp money on the under as only 64% of the money on the total is backing the over, and our model sides with that sharp money.
While the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons are certainly bad teams — 25th and 26th, respectively, per our nERD-based rankings — with below-average defenses, the under has been very profitable in Falcons home games the last two seasons. Since the start of 2019, the under has won out in seven of Atlanta’s last 11 home contests, and the under has also hit in six of the last eight meetings between these two squads. And Detroit’s D has been decent against the pass, ranking 14th by our schedule-adjusted metrics.
We project Atlanta to win in a close one, 24.49-24.06, which adds up to a total of 48.55 points — well below the line of 54.5. We forecast the under to hit 67.56% of the time and have it as one of the better bets of the weekend.
Under 57.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating out of 5 Houston Moneyline (+168): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Houston Moneyline (+168): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Two of the best quarterbacks in the game square off as the Green Bay Packers take on the Houston Texans. We should see a good amount of points, but this game is just like the aforementioned contest in that a lot of sharp money is on the under. Per oddsFire, 67% of bets on the total are on the over but only 47% of the money has followed suit.
That’s a pretty big discrepancy, and our projections again side with the sharp money.
The total has gone under in 11 of Houston’s last 16 home games. While the sample size is small, Green Bay has gained 1.5 more yards per play at home this season than they have on the road. It was the same story in 2019 as the Pack gained 1.59 more yards per play at Lambeau than they did in their travels.
In addition to the under, our model also sees betting value in the Texans, who are 3.5-point home ‘dogs and are +168 on the moneyline. While Green Bay is a strong 4-1, our model isn’t in love with them, ranking them 11th overall. Houston is just 23rd, but the Texans have looked better in two games since Bill O’Brien was let go — roasting the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-14 and going toe-to-toe on the road with the unbeaten Tennessee Titans, losing 42-36 in overtime.
Our model has the Texans winning this game straight up, 24.97-24.05, and we think Houston prevails 53.2% of the time. If you want the safer route, you can take Houston and the 3.5 points at -110 as we think the Texans cover 65.99% of the time. As for the total, we project the under to win out 71.35% of the time as we see 49.02 total points being scored — nearly eight fewer than the listed line.
Jets +12.0 (-122): 4-Star Rating out of 5
After flying out of the gates and scoring no fewer than 27 points in any of their first four games (and winning all four) — with Josh Allen looking like an MVP contender in the process — the Buffalo offense has struggled the past two weeks. In Week 5, the Bills flopped in all facets in a 42-16 beatdown at the hands of the Titans, and their offense didn’t get going in a 26-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs a week ago.
While the two defeats aren’t all on Allen, his win/loss splits are staggering.
I feel like it’s going to be 2030, and I still won’t know if Allen is good or not.
I do know the Jets are bad. They’re winless, 0-6 against the spread and the worst team in the league, according to our numbers. There’s not a lot I can throw out there that’s going to make you feel good about them.
Buuuuut the Bills might not be as good as we thought. Our metrics put them 16th overall and rank Buffalo’s defense eighth-worst. Sam Darnold is expected back on Sunday, and when he played when these two teams tangled in Week 1, Gang Green lost by just 10. In fact, the Jets have lost to the Bills by more than 12 points only once in their past 11 meetings.
We project Buffalo to win 24.53-18.49, and we have the Jets covering 68.11% of the time.