NFL DFS Preseason Hall of Fame Game Picks and Blog
Each week of the NFL DFS preseason we’ll be outlining some of the important situations to monitor that impact the roster construction for that week’s games. The NFL Preseason DFS Hall of Fame game is here and features a Showdown Contest with the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos. We’ve already outlined some important strategic considerations for each week of the preseason. In Week 1 the typical starters and veterans will rest leaving ample playing time for the unproven rookies, backups, and practice squad team members. We also know that it is important to target thin positional depth charts which will likely lead to more playing time for the eligible players.
At a team level, we are looking at positional scoring averages for QBs of roughly 15 DK points, RBs 25 DK points, WRs 35 DK points, and TEs 10 DK points. These averages could then be used to cascade down based on depth.
Preseason DFS Optimizer Tips (Link)
While we aren’t offering projections for the HOF game, our NFL Preseason DFS Optimizer will be live for premium customers and you can use it to upload your own projections and control your player pool. This blog will provide some guidance weekly to help with that, as well as roster construction tips. This week is a Showdown which means strong DFS players should spend time doing the following:
- Create groups to avoid too much positional competition on the same lineup.
- Create captain groups to ensure that if you utilize a QB at captain you’re correlating wide receivers, or if a wide receiver is used at captain you have QB options to pair with him.
- Utilize our shuffle feature to provide diversity to your lineups.
- Preseason can be very random. We have a new randomness feature that allows you to set a coefficient of randomness on players or positions. Consider increasing the randomness to reflect the variability of the projections for preseason.
For Showdown correlation is always important. Rosters that play Broncos QB starter Kevin Hogan should consider targeting the 2nd string players who are likely to play with him, especially if Hogan is played at Captain. Similarly, you may catch some beat writer reporting on starters for each offense that could have valuable correlation information. DST and 2 DST lineups have both a high floor and a high ceiling for Showdown and there are plenty of scenarios where a Captain D could end up as the optimal lineup.
2018 Preseason HOF Game Notes
This year’s NFL DFS Hall of Fame Game is a Showdown format which adds another wrinkle beyond Week 1. Last year the game between the Bears and Ravens saw both defenses score 10+ fantasy points (finishing 2nd and 3rd on the slate in scoring) and the Ravens not even let Justin Tucker attempt a field goal. Names like Javon Wims, Tanner Gentry, and FB Michael Burton crack the top 10 fantasy performances. They were joined by QBs Tyler Bray (CHI), Lamar Jackson and RG3 (BAL), TEs Hayden Hurst and Maxx Williams, and Gus Edwards as the only players to crack more than 5 points on DraftKings. You read that right.
Positional Depth (Healthy Status + Practice Squad from FantasyData)
Atlanta: 3 QBs, 8 RBs (includes FB), 12 WRs, 6 TEs
Denver: 5 QBs, 6 RBs (includes FB), 14 WRs, 7 TEs
NFL DFS Preseason Strategy and Hall of Fame Game Showdown Picks
News and Notes (Last Updated 8/1 at 830AM)
Denver vs Atlanta
- Broncos unofficial depth chart has been released
- Hogan will start against Atlanta followed by Lock and then Rypien
- Falcons official depth chart has been released
- With Denver starters expected to sit, Tim Patrick and Juwann Winfree are the next best wideout options and would be more likely to catch early game action.
- Based on the Falcons depth chart I would speculate that perhaps Schaub plays with Gage / Hardy. Beat writers list Blake, Gray and Zaccheus highlighted as a few Falcons as a few pass catchers to watch that could play with Benkert.
- Most starts won’t play and Denver TEs Butt, Howard to sit along with confirmation on Hamilton/Sanders sitting.
More to come…..
Situations to Target
The Falcons Thin QB Depth. Atlanta has just 3 QBs on the roster including Matt Ryan and 15-year veteran Matt Schaub. They are joined by practice squad QB Kurt Benkert who could see an extended look. While Matt Schaub will start for Atlanta there is no reason for them to let a 15-year veteran play for long, Benkert is a strong play on expected snap count alone.
The Broncos solidified pecking order at RB. Lindsay and Freeman are the starters. Booker is the 3rd string and 3rd down back. That leaves rookies us with George Aston (FB), Devonatae Jackson, and practice squad RBs Khalfani Muhammed and David Williams. Its plausible that we see a 3RB rotation for Denver.
In general, DFS players should be cautious of the quality of information. With several popular content providers providing preseason DFS content it is done on a mix of fact and speculation. Even the strongest players are going to have limited opportunity and on a single game slate there could be opportunities to zag away from speculation driven ownership.