NFL DFS Week 5 GPP Recaps
The most popular game environments to pick from in Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season wound up producing the winning lineups across the industry, just not necessarily from the players that were the most popular choices. While the relatively low-price tags on Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Olamide Zaccheaus were enticing to many players, given their game environments and projected game scripts, they combined for under 15 points while taking up over 55% combined ownership on DraftKings. Instead the winning pieces this week came from the passing game in the Chiefs/Raiders shootout and the running game in the Falcons/Panthers game. The biggest difference maker of all though was the 45.6 DraftKings points coming out party from Steelers rookie Chase Claypool who parlayed his opportunities into four touchdowns and a combined 116 yards. The two biggest story lines from Week 5 though were the end to the Chiefs 13 game winning streak versus the division rival Raiders, and of course the horrific injury to Dak Prescott who suffered a compound fracture and dislocated ankle that required surgery on Sunday night. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys offence adapts to life with Andy Dalton under center.
NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire
The million-dollar winner on DraftKings was “jduke24” with a score of 242.50 points. The winning lineup was one of just two entries in the contest for “jduke24”. Carrying on the common theme from the 2020 season, the winning strategy was again a double stack with Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce from the Chiefs passing game but this was the first million dollar winner of the year that didn’t game stack in their build as there were no Raiders in the build despite their putting up 40 points in the game.
The supporting pieces for the winner came from the Giants side of the one of the highest implied game totals of the week (52) while most players were stacking Cowboys. Due to the uncertainty in the Giants backfield, Freeman came in very low owned while Slayton was one of the few healthy bodies remaining in their receiving corps with big play potential. Most players were also building stacks from another high total game between the Falcons and Panthers (53.5) but were building around the Falcons passing game while Gurley gobbled the touchdowns on the ground instead. The biggest difference maker though for “jduke24” was getting a 1.2% owned Chase Claypool that put up a whopping 45.6 points with a salary of just $4100 while building only two lineups. Given they used Eric Ebron in their other lineup, there was some intentionality to picking on the Eagles struggling defence and Claypool is likely just the fortunate low salary piece that fit with the rest of the stack.
The land mines “jduke24” managed to avoid were the top owned player in the contest, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (34.66%) who returned only 11 points and Olamide Zaccheaus (20.63%) who produced only 2.3 points. In building just two lineups and avoiding two of the top six owned players that produced flops, “jduke24” was in a good place to begin with and managing to pivot to lower owned players from the top game environments sealed the million dollar pay day.
NFL $300K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]
In the world of high stakes single entry contests, “roxygirl9847” was the big winner this week with a score of 203.10 points. The build strategy of “double stack and bring one back” made for another winner with Mahomes, Watkins, Kelce, and Waller all present from the Chiefs/Raiders game. A secondary stack of Mike Davis and the Panthers DST also helped cement the victory. The Panthers DST score was nothing special but punting that position is always a fair strategy given its volatility. Supporting pieces from the other top game environments of the day came in the form of Elliott and Slayton from the Cowboys/Giants, and the Brandin Cooks redemption tour checked in from the Texans/Jaguars game.
Much as it was in the million-dollar contest, the key to success was stacking the high scoring game environments while avoiding the two top owned players from them in Olamide Zaccheaus (49.53%) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (45.28%).
With a 54th place finish in the NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire, and a handful of other lineups in the top 1000, the player pool of “moklovin” gets the bright lights in Week 5. Their top lineup featured a “double stack and bring one back” build strategy from the Falcons/Panthers game that was build around Bridgewater, Davis, Anderson, and Ridley, all of whom commanded significant ownership. The lower owned difference maker in the lineup was Brandin Cooks making up for all his wasted air yards in one game, just a week after being a major disappointment.
Looking at the player pool for the 150 entries “moklovin” had in the NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings reveals a couple big wins and a couple big losses. Being well overweight on Zaccheaus, Edwards-Helaire, and Kittle certainly capped their overall ceiling in the contest, but having positive leverage on Elliott, Hunt, Kelce, Jacobs, Moore, and Cooks significant upside.
The build strategy throughout the 150 lineups in the contest centred on at least single stacks plus one player from the opposing team but many also included double stacks with multiple players coming back from the opposing team to create almost full game stacks.
Congratulations to all the big winners on DraftKings in Week 5!