NFL DFS Week 7 GPP Recaps
Week 7 in the NFL was a wild day of football featuring a jam packed 12 game main slate including the 71-point overtime shootout in Arizona that provided the late-night hammer for a million dollars on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Three other games also cracked the 65-point mark as large field GPPs were won by the highest scores so far this season. As was the case in Week 6 as well, TDs from players scored late in the fourth quarter flipped leaderboards and led to the great crescendo of then night game in which Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show.
NFL $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire
The big winner on DraftKings was “ncorfield8k” with a score of 279.02 points. They were the second max entry winner of the contest this season with a full set of 150 lineups. Through the first six weeks of the season, “double stack and bring one back was the winning formula” but this week was won by mobile quarterbacks that put up nearly 100 yards rushing so “single stack and bring one back” with Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and DeAndre Hopkins won the day. Seattle’s passing game was even more condensed than usual and Tyler Lockett was the top performer on the slate with 15 receptions for 200 yards and three TDs. The winning lineup also included the top value play of the day at RB in Jamaal Williams and his teammate Davante Adams who with 47.6 DK points was still only the 2nd highest scoring WR on the slate. The sub 5% contrarian plays that made the difference were Diontae Johnson and Hunter Bryant who both scored a pair of TDs with bargain basement salaries.
The lineup set from “ncorfield8k” showed a combination of single and double stacks with the occasional game stack from high total games. The standard formula of “single/double stack and bring one back” seemed like more of a coincidence where it happened than a general philosophy for lineup building. Overall, their exposures to the top plays likely led to a really profitable day above and beyond the million-dollar lineup. Amazingly, the difference maker in the day was the last-minute accidental TD from Todd Gurley as he fell into the endzone while trying to come up short to kill the clock. Atlanta’s loss was the gain of “ncorfield8k”.
Unlike in the first six weeks of the season, this week the chalk RBs hit and the biggest disappointments in the top 12 owned players were TEs – Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry. The continuing theme of 2020 is that punting TE continues to be a winning formula as both Cleveland starting TEs came in at $3K or less and produced three total TDs. The high prices of name brand TEs is the first strike against them, while the opportunity cost of punting a different position over TE – which has a $500 cheaper floor – continues to be high.
NFL $300K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]
The big winner in the world of high stakes single entry contests on DraftKings was “tramelle” with a score of 252.50 points. As was the case in MME, “single stack and bring one back” with Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, and Tyler Lockett was the winning lineup construction formula this week. Much of the season has been the story of significant flops from chalk RBs but the double cheap chalk RB strategy worked out well this week to allow “tramelle” to pay up for three players over $7K in Murray, Kamara, and Adams.
While most Murray stacks paired him with Deandre Hopkins, going the cheaper and lower owned route with Christian Kirk provided the salary relief needed to pay up for the key players on Sunday. The Washington DST looked like a good punt play to start the day with Andy Dalton at the helm for the Cowboys but they became an enormously good play when Dalton was replaced with Ben DiNucci who allowed three more sacks in garbage time on just six drop backs.
The underwhelming performance from Kamara at 71.7% ownership was not a death sentence and neither was the snowflake from Hunter Henry who was a top ten owned player in the contest at 21.2%.
$2.5M NFL Sunday Million
The million-dollar winner on Fanduel was “cw1tt” with a score of 239 points. Their “double stack and bring one back” with Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Tyler Lockett put up a total of 10 combined TDs to win the day. James Robinson was the low owned difference maker at 5.2% that produced 137 total yards and two TDs of his own in an unexpected shootout between the Jaguars and Chargers.
Unlike on DraftKings where punting defence was the winning formula with the Washington DST, the Kansas City DST scored two TDs on their way to 24 points and a million-dollar win. Snowy conditions made footing and ball control difficult for the Broncos leading to four turnovers and the aforementioned TDs.
$200K Sun NFL Cover 2 Single Entry
In the world of high stakes single entry on Fanduel, “dirty1400” was a big winner with 215 points. Their “single stack and bring one back” with Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins, and Tyler Lockett was a common winning formula on Sunday. An incredibly low 3.9% owned Antonio Gibson had the best game of his young career with 128 yards and a TD in the Washington rout of the Cowboys. While most players went the Kamara direction in single entry due to his prime matchup and usage expectations with Michael Thomas still out, “dirty1400” went triple cheap RB with Gibson, Bernard, and Williams to free up salary to pay up for all of Hopkins, Lockett, and Adams who each had big days.
Both Cook and the Chargers DST were somewhat non-factors in the big win, but without the TD from Cook it could have been a different outcome for “dirty1400”.
With a 9th place finish in the Fanduel $2.5M NFL Sunday Million and a top 300 finish in the DraftKings NFL $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire, “ehafner” is in the pro spotlight for Week 7. His “double stack and bring one back” featuring Russ, Lockett, Olsen, and Kirk led to a great finish on Fanduel but the unreal workload for Lockett really sunk the ship for Seahawks double stacks on Sunday night. The low owned explosion from James Robinson accompanied by the accidental losing TD from Todd Gurley sealed a top finish for “ehafner”.
Their player pool in the DraftKings NFL $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest was a bit more of a mixed bag. There were some exceptionally good overweights in their top 15 exposures, but there were also some major swings and misses. Being overweight on Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Kareem Hunt, Tee Higgins, and Antonio Gibson was a solid floor to build from but being drastically overweight on Diggs, Elliott, Davis while being underweight on Jamaal Williams would have been a difficult hurdle to overcome for the full lineup set. The build strategy of “double stack and bring one back” was a common theme in the 150-lineup set and it has led to a lot of wins this year. Unfortunately, in Week 7, in led to a lot of dead lineups as so many games had very condensed scoring from a couple of players rather than the scoring being spread throughout a few top players in the matchup.
Congratulations to all the big winners in Week7 NFL DFS contests across the industry!