The Cleveland Browns take their undefeated road record to the Bay Area this Monday as they match up with the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. San Francisco looks for their first 4-0 start since 1990.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Cleveland Browns: +174
San Francisco 49ers: -200
Cleveland Browns +4: -110
San Francisco 49ers -4: -110
Over 46.5: -115
Under 46.5: -105
What to Watch For
Cleveland is starting to build a solid balance on offense with their aerial attack and ground game. Baker Mayfield is coming off a matchup (vs Baltimore) where he threw for 342 yards and 1 TD. RB Nick Chubb added a season-high 165 yards on the ground, including a 88-yard run in the fourth quarter.
Containing the Weapons:
Mayfield has more than enough options to throw to with this roster. When teams focus on Odell Beckham Jr., he can get Jarvis Landry in single coverage. Landy had eight catches for 167 yards last week vs Baltimore.
Jimmy Garoppolo heads into Week 5 with 739 passing yards, 5 TDs and 4 INTs. Not the best ratio, but the 49ers defense playing above average has yielded him more room for error.
We’ll keep our eyes on the Emmanuel Mosley-Odell Beckham Jr. matchup. Mosley has been on the field for a shade over 23 percent of SF’s defensive snaps, but has been targeted just twice. He gave up completion both those times, though, and should expect to see quite a bit of action on Monday.
Browns QB Baker Mayfield is projected to finish with 318 yards on 24 completions. He averages 2 TDs and 1.3 INTs per sim.
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is projected to finish with 268 yards on 21 cpmpletions. He averages 1.9 TDSs and 0.6 INTs per sim.
Browns to cover.
Four-star (out of four) hot trend pick here. Odds indicate Cleveland has a 52-to-53 percent chance to cover a 4-point spread; they do that in 57+ percent of simulations. SF’s average margin of victory in sims is +1.4 points.