NFL Week 7 Line Movement Report
One of the most exciting aspects of betting on sports is that the lines are constantly changing. Several factors can cause the line to move, but betting activity, injuries, and weather are some of the most common.
Luckily, we can track these line movements on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into some of the most significant moves from the NFL for Week 7.
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers – Packers -10 to -7.5
The Packers opened up as sizable 10-point home favorites, but they’ve dipped to just -7.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. They’ve received most of the spread bets and dollars, especially after the line moved to a lower number.
Aaron Rodgers has historically been fantastic at covering the spread as a home favorite, but the Packers have won just one game this season by more than 10 points. They’ve also struggled vs. the run, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and their pass defense is more vulnerable than usual with Jaire Alexander on IR. The Football Team could make this game more competitive than expected.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins – Falcons -1.5 to -2.5
The Dolphins are coming off a loss vs. the Jaguars in London, and now they have to turn around and play a game the following week. Teams typically get a bye after playing overseas, but the Dolphins chose to have a bye later in the year. Only time will tell if that was a wise decision.
On the other hand, the Falcons are coming off their bye, and favorites have historically done well with extra rest. They’ve gone 167-132-9 against the spread following a bye week, and they’ll also get Calvin Ridley back in the lineup after missing the previous game.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams – Rams -14.5 to -16.5
This is a massive mismatch on paper, and most of the dollars are siding with the Rams. They’ve received 84% of the spread dollars in this contest, and the Rams will also be an extremely popular side in parlays and teasers.
We don’t usually see favorites this large in NFL games. There’s only been one other favorite of greater than two touchdowns this year, and that was when the Bills were favored by 17 points vs. the Jaguars. They ultimately won that game 40-0, so they easily covered the spread in that spot. Historically, favorites of at least 14.5 points have posted a record of 41-40-2 against the spread since 2004. The Rams and Cardinals will both have the opportunity to improve that record this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans – Total 56.5 to 57.5
This line can’t get high enough for bettors. The over has received 95% of the dollars, driving this number to 57.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That puts this game in rarified air. There have only been 19 games since 2004 with a closing total of at least 57.0 points, and this game is poised to become No. 20.
Believe it or not, the over has done exceptionally well in these massive total games. It’s gone 13-6 in the previous 19 occurrences, so it seems as though the sportsbooks struggle to set the line in these shootouts properly.
The Titans are coming off a huge win last week, and now Derrick Henry and Co. get a matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Chiefs should also hold up their end of the bargain, so expect lots of action on the scoreboard.
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Total 48.0 to 47.0
The total on this game has gone in the opposite direction. It’s down to just 47.0 points, even though Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are averaging 32.5 points per game. It remains to be seen if the Bears’ offense can get anything going with Justin Fields at quarterback, especially since the coaching staff seems reluctant to take advantage of his full skillset. He’s had just 15 carries over his past four games despite ranking in the 99th percentile for 40-yard dash time at the quarterback position.