NFL Week Two Sharp Report
The backdoor was open on Thursday night as the Browns were unable to cover a 6-point number at home, much to the rejoice of the slight majority of the betting public who backed Joe Burrow in primetime.
Week 2 of the NFL slate features a fearsome foursome of heavy public favorites (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Bills) getting over 90% of the action despite all four teams being on the road. The public is not afraid to take what they saw in Week 1 and apply it to the following Sunday. But as we’ve learned time and time again in the NFL, things are not always as they appear. Bettors must always be weary of overreacting to what they saw the prior week and instead must keep searching for injuries, matchups, and line moves that present value. This week, a pair of line moves, or in this case a lack thereof, point us to a particular side. None of these matchups involve the heavy public sides as the sharps are looking elsewhere on the board.
Rams at Eagles (PHI -1.5)
It’s not often you see a spread cross zero twice before the weekend. The books are very unsure about this matchup featuring a Rams side that looked impressive on Sunday night with a win over the Cowboys against the banged-up Eagles who lost their opener to Washington. Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders returning are a huge boost for this Eagles offense that ran out of gas in the second half of Week 1. Johnson’s return solidifies the interior of the offensive line which is crucial with Aaron Donald lining up on the other side of the ball. It feels like the Eagles also punted on their offense last week giving Sanders an extra week to rest up for this physical Rams front seven. The matchup for me to watch is Jared Goff against this Eagles secondary. Nickell Robey-Coleman matches up well in the slot against Cooper Kupp and overall, Philly has evolved into a solid unit led by Darius Slay. I will take advantage of the oddsmakers’ uncertainty on this game and hop on the birds.
PICK: EAGLES -1.5
Vikings at Colts (IND -3)
This is another game that books were clearly troubled with. This line opened Colts -3 and has sat there all week long despite over 80% of the action on Indy. Both teams vastly underperformed in Week 1 and both will be motivated to avoid a dreadful 0-2 start. There will be 2,500 fans in the stands at Lucas Oil Stadium which will have little impact on the game. The Vikings got absolutely blitzed by the Packers which completely took Dalvin Cook out of the game plan. Cook will get significantly more than 12 carries this week as Minny looks to control the tempo on the road. I like the matchup of Adam Thielen against this Colts secondary that let Gardner Minshew complete 95% of his passes in Week 1. Former Viking Xavier Rhodes who was off the charts bad in 2019 will have trouble slowing down Thielen on play-action if Cook gets going. Minnesota’s defense will rebound against an aging Colts offense that will be without Marlon Mack.
PICK: VIKINGS +3