Our Model’s Favorite Week 13 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 13 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Spread (-3)
There is a typical gambling move of betting on a team after they’ve fired their head coach, which the Lions did last week. Head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn are both gone. That might work in a normal scenario, except there are still massive issues for the Lions: star wide receiver and ascendant rookie running back D’Andre Swift are both injured, and their defense has been a sieve all season. The team has just not been able to put up points reliably without Golladay or Swift and catch Chicago back at home off a nationally televised evisceration via Aaron Rodgers.
The Bears sit at 5-6, and the chance to still make a playoff run under coach Matt Nagy. Yes, they have quarterback issues, but they still possess a very stingy defense that should be able to give Matt Stafford fits all day and the Lions rank 31st in the league in run defense. Bears running back David Montgomery is no one’s idea of a star running back, but he was the lone bright spot for the Bears against the Packers, who have a comparable run defense to the Lions. This is a mismatch of motivations, health, and offensive vs. defensive strengths. For all that, Chicago should be able to steal a low-scoring game.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Under 44.5: See above; same explanation applies.
Los Angeles Rams (-145) Moneyline at Arizona Cardinals
Sean McVay’s record straight-up off a loss in his coaching career is in the neighborhood of .750. Winning three out of every four off a loss isn’t bad! The Rams’ offense remains flowing through wide receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, and important for this game, the Cardinals lack an adequate pass rush, which is the one kryptonite for quarterback Jared Goff: he’s 36th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks for QBR under pressure.
Their defense, led by freak beast Aaron Donald and cornerbacks Darious Williams and Jalen Ramsey, has come on and been lockdown in the second half of games. Prior to last week against the Niners, the Rams hadn’t let up more than three points in the second half of a game all season. For whatever reason, Niners’ head coach Kyle Shanahan has always had McVay’s number, so weighing last week’s performance too heavily is foolish. They’re set up to do great here.
On the other hand, the Cardinals may be a bit of a paper tiger: their record is 6-5, but their first five games were against bottom-barrel teams, and it took the “Hail Murray” at the last second to beat the Bills. Stylistically, Ramsey and Williams should be able to lockdown star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and secondary wide receiver Christian Kirk, and outside of Hopkins/Kirk, the passing game with quarterback Kyler Murray has been questionable at best, to go with a largely inefficient running game this season….one that will have Aaron Donald lining up across from them this week. Stylistically, it’s just not a great game for Arizona, so for that, the Rams seem pretty cheaply priced at only -145.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings Under 51
There’s a similar five-star rating for the Minnesota Vikings to cover -10.5, but the under is a stronger bet. Bill Parcells’ protégé Mike Zimmer is a throwback who wants to run, play ball-control offense, and win defense. The team may or may not have Adam Thielen back, but the fact remains that after the Browns ran roughshod over the Jaguars non-existent run defense last week and gave Zimmer a blueprint to win that he likely already had, in that Dalvin Cook may legitimately have 30 carries this week to just bludgeon the Jaguars over and over on 5-6 yards runs.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are 5-6 after a very tough beginning to the season and, while they won’t catch Green Bay in the NFC North, are squarely in the hunt for a wild card spot. The defense, once comical to start the season (they were starting four rookies and Harrison Smith in their secondary), has rounded into form and is about league average now and will be motivated to have the team get to a .500 record. The Jaguars, on the other hand, may not even be trying to win! They started journeyman Mike Glennon last game and are only one game behind the Jets for the No. 1 draft position in this year’s draft.
As it stands, they have no quarterback for the future and will likely be able to take star Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields to try to re-build the franchise with. If the Vikings get up 10-14 points, they’ll sit on the ball. This game won’t get to 31-20, which is about what’s implied. This looks to be, at most, a 31-17 type victory for Minnesota, happy to get over a letdown spot.