Reverse Line Movement and Fishy Lines for NFL Week 15
NFL Week 15 is taking over your entire weekend. There are two games on Saturday and 12 games on Sunday. There is reverse contrarian line movement for the Saturday night game in addition to a few fishy lines on Sunday.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers opened as 8.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook against the Carolina Panthers. That line has dropped to Packers -7.5 despite 72% of bets on Green Bay. There’s going to be a lot of recency bias on the Packers’ recent success and the Panthers’ failures against an injured Broncos team last week.
Green Bay has won three games in a row by an average margin of 12 points. Carolina is coming off a 32-27 loss to the Broncos, marking their seventh loss in eight games. The Panthers have kept all but one of those losses within a touchdown. Their worst loss was on Nov. 15, hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers falling 46-23. I still think the Packers can beat the Panthers. I just think giving a touchdown or more to this Panthers team is too much.
Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 6-3 against the spread this season as an underdog and 23-6 ATS (79%) in his career. The Packers are 2-5 ATS as a favorite of more than seven points this season. Bridgewater has the second-highest completion percentage amongst quarterbacks at 70.7%, behind Saints quarterback Drew Brees at 73.5%. It won’t surprise me if Bridgewater throws for over 200 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns against a Packers defense allowing 24.8 points per game (17th in NFL). It’s a good tease opportunity getting the Packers through the key numbers of seven and three.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
This is one of the most interesting line moves of the weekend. Miami opened as 2.5-point home favorites against New England. That line has moved to Miami -1.5 despite 85% of the bets on the Dolphins. With line movement in favor of the Patriots, we have to look for the reason why.
With the Patriots coming off a 24-3 blowout by the Rams, the public will quickly fade New England. The Dolphins kept it relatively close against Kansas City, covering as 7-point home dogs losing 33-27. A short road dog of +6 or less is hitting at 63% this season.
Although the Phins have a good reputation on defense this year, they’re still allowing 120.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 21st in the league. The Patriots quarterback Cam Newton rushed for 75 yards against the Dolphins in week one of the season when New England won 21-11.
The Patriots rank seventh against the pass allowing an average of 218.5 yards per game. The Dolphins are still without their lead running back, Myles Gaskin, who’s on the COVID-19 reserve list. Miami struggled to establish the run last week without Gaskin. Against the Chiefs, their leading back was DeAndre Washington, who rushed for 35 yards on 13 carries. With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa possibly being forced to throw the ball, keep an eye on the injury status of wide receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring) and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder). They are the No. 1 and 2 receivers on the team and could hinder the Dolphins’ chances at a win if they’re inactive alongside Gaskin.