Reverse Line Movement and Fishy Lines for NFL Week 16
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
There has been reverse contrarian line movement on the total of this game. The total was originally at 49.5 however has dropped to 47.5 on the FanDuel Sportsbook. With 61% of the bets of the over, it signals smart money coming in on the under.
The 49ers will be without their backup quarterback Nick Mullens who is out for the season with a right elbow injury that could require Tommy John surgery. Third-stringer CJ Beathard will be getting the start. The 49ers also signed quarterback Josh Rosen off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice squad. Beathard has made four appearances this season.
vs. Eagles: 14/19, 138 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
vs. Dolphins: 9/18, 94 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
vs. Saints: 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
vs. Cowboys: 5/7, 100 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
Not only does San Francisco have injuries to the quarterback position, both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are out for the season due to injuries. Mostert is dealing with an ankle injury, while Samuel has a lingering hamstring issue. Where will the points come from? All Cardinals? I don’t think the sharps are buying it.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team
Everything in this game is fishy. The spread has moved against Washington despite 65% of bets on the Football Team. Washington opened -2 on the lookahead line. That line reopened at -1.5 then was bet back to Washington -2.5 however now sits at Football Team -1 on FanDuel. As for the total, it has come down from 44.5 to 41.5 despite 54% of bets on the over.
The Panthers have been a disappointment losing eight of their last nine games. All but one loss were by one possession. Washington is riding high as the favorite to win the NFC East at -240. Washington played Seattle close losing 20-15 even with Dwayne Haskins under center. That’s how good this Football Team defense is. I think the line movement is going against Washington due to its uncertainty at quarterback. Alex Smith practiced this week in full for the first time since straining his right calf. How much will Washington try to force Smith out there if he’s not 100% due to the off the field issues with Haskins this week? Haskins was caught at a strip club following last week’s loss, breaking COVID protocol. Haskins was stripped of his captainship (pun intended) and it could have bettors nervous about the backing he’d have.
Plus, Washington’s No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin is doubtful for the game with an ankle injury. McLaurin leads the team with 1,078 receiving yards this season. The next best is tight end Logan Thomas with 570. Running back Antonio Gibson is questionable with turf toe and has missed the last two games. The leading rusher last week was JD McKissic who racked up 51 on the ground. The Panthers have two 1,000 yard receivers with DJ Moore leading the way with 1,055 and Robby Anderson at 1,017. The Panthers could outscore Football Team no matter how hard the Washington defense plays.