Saturday NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Packers TE Robert Tonyan Anytime TD +170
Tonyan has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games. Overall this season, he has the seventh most touchdowns in the NFL, tied with Travis Kelce. You can get more value on this play by betting Tonyan anytime touchdown plus a Packers win, which gets you +240 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Packers WR Allen Lazard Anytime TD +330
This is the reason I dislike anytime touchdowns. This pick is based on gut feel and storylines. Aaron Rodgers spoke to Lazard’s work ethic last season. Rodgers said he’s impressed with how quickly Lazard learned the playbook and appreciates how hard the now second-year player practices. Lazard hasn’t scored a touchdown since Nov. 29 against the Bears. He didn’t score a touchdown last year in the playoffs either. This year, with the emergence of Robert Tonyan in the end zone, I can see a world where the Rams are focused on him and Davante Adams, letting Lazard get open for his first career postseason touchdown.
Rams RB Cam Akers Props
I wasn’t looking at Akers rushing yards prop too hard until Fanduel Trading Director John Sheeran mentioned it on The Morning After. Sheeran said he thinks the run defense of the Packers is very weak, and he trusts McVay to put together some good run schemes for Akers. Akers ran for 131 yards on 28 carries last week against the Seattle Seahawks. You can take the over 73.5 rushing yards on FanDuel at -112. Akers rush attempts are also intriguing at 17.5. Akers has hit this over in four out of the last five weeks.
As for an interesting Akers play, you can also go over 9.5 for his longest reception. The Rams’ running back has hit this over in four of the last five weeks. Akers had a 44-yard reception in the wild card round in addition to a 38-yard reception the week prior. The Packers have allowed eight different running backs to have over 9.5 for their longest reception this season.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
JK Dobbins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
JK Dobbins has hit this over in five of the last six weeks of the regular season. The Bills have struggled against running backs when facing a top 10 offense. Buffalo has gone up against four of the best rushing offenses in the NFL, including facing the New England Patriots twice.
Here’s how those backs ran the ball versus the Bills 20th-ranked rushing defense:
- vs. Colts: Jonathan Taylor 78 rushing yards
- vs. Patriots: Sony Michael 69 rushing yards
- vs. Cardinals: Kenyan Drake 100 rushing yards + QB Kyler Murray 61 rushing yards
- vs. Patriots: Damien Harris 102 rushing yards
- vs. Rams: Darrell Henderson 114 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson may be the trendy play. You can bet Jackson over 76.5 too, but I’d rather take less yardage in a buy-low spot for Dobbins, who has emerged as the Ravens No. 1 running back.
Josh Allen Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-108)
This number is pretty spot on. Opponents attempt 36.6 passes against the Ravens, which is the seventh most in the NFL. Allen has hit this number eight times this season. The last two times Allen went over this number in the regular season was against two of the league’s best sacking defenses in the Denver Broncos (2.6 sacks/game) and Pittsburgh Steelers (3.3 sacks/game). Allen had 40 pass attempts against the Broncos and 43 against the Steelers. The Ravens rank behind both those teams averaging 2.4 sacks/game. Now that the Ravens defensive line is at full strength with Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, Brandon Williams, and Derek Wolfe, pressure upfront could lead to more Allen throws.
Buffalo is also without one of their running backs. Rookie Zack Moss is out for the season after suffering from a left ankle injury last week. The Bills signed veteran back Devonta Freeman to backup Devin Singletary; however, I don’t see the run game playing much of a factor. The Ravens defense is the seventh-best in the league allowing 105.4 rushing yards per game. Singletary hasn’t had more than 10 rush attempts since Dec. 7.