SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Best Wild Card NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Round 1 of the NFL Playoffs that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks Over 42.5 points
The first SportsGrid betting model pick this week is a five-star prediction featuring the over in the Rams-Seahawks game. In an NFL season that has an average total score of 49, 6.5 points under the average is exceptionally low for a posted total. The Seahawks are dangerous at home, and just because the team has run the ball more of late doesn’t mean that head coach Pete Carroll will be afraid to “Let Russ Cook” to make sure that they have the firepower with wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to score with Sean McVay’s Rams team. On the flip side, the Rams had backup John Wolford able to get the team to 18 points last week, and frankly, with a total so low, having Wolford or starting quarterback Jared Goff back in a “kitchen sink” game for the Rams, this game can absolutely get to 23-20 for the over to hit. Take the over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Washington Football Team Over 45.5 points
Make no mistake here; the Washington front-seven will be the best overall unit on the field. That said, 45.5 is a low total in today’s NFL, and they’ll meet their match with a team that Tom Brady has playing out of their minds over the last few weeks: in the last month, they’ve averaged 37 points per game, while Brady hasn’t tossed fewer than two touchdowns in a game since mid-season (he’s thrown for less than 300 yards only once in the last six weeks). The Bucs have the weapons to attack the only weakness of the Football Team’s defense: cornerback, as well as a top-shelf offensive line to try to slow down Chase Young and company. Quarterback Alex Smith has game-managed the Football Team well, and the team has had an average offense with him: since Week 8, the Football Team has topped 20 points in all but two weeks. The Football Team will likely have to throw a bit to keep up with the Bucs, so there’s a good chance that a fourth-quarter garbage-time touchdown sends this game over the total. Over is the play here.
Baltimore Ravens-Tennessee Titans Over 54.5 points
The last SportsGrid betting model pick this week is a four-star pick featuring the over in the Ravens-Titans tilt. The number may seem high for a playoff game between two teams who run the ball primarily, but stylistically, this game can absolutely hit this number and go over. First, the Ravens offense has caught fire at the right time over the last month: starting from Week 13, their points scored have been 34, 47,40, 27, and 38, and they’ve embraced their 2019 style: Lamar Jackson is back to rushing all over the field and tossing passing touchdowns with relative ease once they get to the red zone. The Titans are dead-last in the NFL’s defensive pressure rate and are 19th in rushing defense: it’s not a particularly good defense overall. On the flip side, the Titans have put up less than 31 points once since in that same time span, often topping 35-40 points. The Ravens defense is solid, but they also have to tackle Derrick Henry in the month of January and bring down physical freak receivers AJ Brown and Corey Davis. The over should hit here.