SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Conference Championship NFL Player Props
While I do miss the gluttony of football that the regular season and first round of the playoffs brought this season, I do appreciate these two conference championship matchups.
It’s more difficult to find value on the props market, but I do appreciate the quality of games we’ll have to watch. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes (hopefully) will make for an epic Sunday of football.
Now, let’s see what the SportsGrid Player Prop Tool says we should rely on.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady
The six-time Super Bowl champion’s passing yards total on FanDuel this week is 285.50, more than Rodgers’ 283.50. The SportsGrid model sees value on Brady’s number, projecting him for 257 on the dot.
Brady has gone over his total this week in exactly half of the Buccaneers’ 18 games this season. There are a few reasons to believe he’s at a disadvantage in Green Bay.
First, he’s playing in Green Bay. The forecast for Sunday in Northeast Wisconsin is a high of 24 degrees with a chance of snow. Tampa Bay played in Washington to start the playoffs, but their previous outdoor road game before that was back on Nov. 15 in Carolina.
The second is the health of Antonio Brown’s knee. An MRI showed no structural damage, but his NFC Championship Game status is very much up in the air. He missed practice on Wednesday and had just one catch for 10 yards against the Saints.
If Brown is out, that means Jaire Alexander will likely be able to focus on Mike Evans, who has proven this season that he can be shut down. Take last week, for example, when Evans had just one catch for a three-yard touchdown against the Saints, primarily against Marcus Lattimore, who has Evans’ number.
Finally, Brady frankly wasn’t that great last week. He did have three touchdowns (one rushing), but he was just 18 of 33 for 199 yards in New Orleans.
This is a big number in less-than-ideal conditions for Brady. Bet the under.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
Speaking of Rodgers, his FanDuel passing yards total this week is 283.50. SportsGrid’s model projects him for 262.79 yards.
While Rodgers is likely to win the MVP award for the third time this season, he has gone under his total in four of the Packers’ past seven games. Back in Week 6, he threw for only 160 yards against the Buccaneers in what was possibly the worst game of his career.
The biggest reason for the Packers’ current seven-game winning streak has been their ground game, led by Aaron Jones’ 669 yards in that span. Jones is averaging 6.6 yards per carry during Green Bay’s streak, and while Tampa Bay’s run defense is among the league’s best, the Packers aren’t going to suddenly go away from Jones, Jamaal Williams, and AJ Dillon if the rookie plays.
Rodgers was the best player in the NFL this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in for a massive game against Tampa Bay. It’s going to be Green Bay’s balanced attack the gets them to the Super Bowl, so back Rodgers’ under this week.
Bills RB Devin Singletary
While Singletary hasn’t gotten the touches many hoped for last week without Zack Moss, he has a golden matchup this week in Kansas City.
Singletary’s rushing yards total on FanDuel is 41.50, while he’s projected for 52.55 by SportsGrid’s model.
After just seven carries last week against the Ravens, it’s fair to assume Singletary will be more involved against a Cheifs defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in Football Outsider’s Rush DVOA.
Kansas City held Browns duo Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to a combined 102 yards, but that was on just 19 carries and mostly due to the Chiefs getting out to a big lead. Baker Mayfield was forced to play catch up and attempt 37 passes.
Buffalo is a better overall matchup against Kansas City than Cleveland was, and we should be in for a back-and-forth affair at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. If Singletary gets to double-digit carries, which isn’t unreasonable after seven last week, this number is very much in reach. It’s likely he’ll get more unless Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll just forgets about the run game altogether.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill
Hill’s FanDuel total for receiving yards is 79.50, but SportsGrid’s model projects him for 89.96 against the Bills.
Buffalo’s pass defense bounced back last week against the Ravens because, well, there wasn’t much to defend. Lamar Jackson threw for just 162 yards, although 87 of those were to his top receiver, Marquise Brown.
In the first round against the Colts, Philip Rivers threw for 309 yards as the Colts gave Buffalo a scare at home. Michael Pittman Jr. led the way in that game with 90 yards for the Colts.
The Bills’ defense ranks 12th in Pass DVOA this season, but that may not matter much against the Chiefs’ offense, especially if Mahomes is healthy and active.
Hill went over this number last week against the Browns and is a good bet to do it again.