SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Week 14 NFL Player Props
SportsGrid’s model likes the value of a pair of young receiving playmakers this week, as well as a stud running back who has fallen on hard times.
Let’s find the value in Week 14:
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
Watson’s rushing yards total on FanDuel this week against the Bears is 26.50. SportsGrid’s model sees value, projecting the Texans’ star for 31.68.
This week against the Bears, it’s likely that Watson will be running for his life more than he wants to. The Texans’ offensive line is actually protecting him better than past years in 2020, but he’s still under pressure more than he’d like.
Watson has gone over that 26.50 number in five of his last six games, including 38 yards last week against the Colts. The Texans will be without David Johnson, which means the ineffective Duke Johnson will get the start. Expect Watson to be Houston’s biggest weapon in the ground game and for him to easily go over this number.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders
Sanders has a combined 53 yards over his last two games. You read that correctly.
But with a rookie quarterback making his first career start for Philadelphia, it seems like this would be a good time to get Sanders going again. SportsGrid’s player props model sees value in him this week against the Saints.
Sanders’ rushing and receiving yards total on FanDuel is 64.50, but SportsGrid projects him for 86.64.
While he has struggled, this number should be a piece of cake for Sanders. In his first seven games of the season, he went over that 64.50 total with his rushing yards alone.
Sanders has just 18 touches in those last two games, during which the Eagles have scored a combined 33 points. Expect Doug Pederson to look to feed him early and often, taking as much pressure off Jalen Hurts as he can.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
In the midst of a breakout rookie campaign, Jefferson’s FanDuel receiving yards total this week is 73.50. SportsGrid’s model projects him for 83.19.
Jefferson has 412 receiving yards over his past three games, and the return of Adam Thielen last week did not slow him down. Jefferson put up 121 yards in a tight win over the Jaguars.
While Carlton Davis is a great cornerback, his performance against Tyreek Hill proved he can he beat deep. Jefferson is the big-play threat for Minnesota, and Kirk Cousins is playing pretty well right now. Expect the Vikes to keep feeding their rookie monster.
Falcons WR Calvin Ridley
Without Julio Jones this week, the Falcons will be relying heavily on Ridley against the Chargers. His FanDuel total is a robust 76.50, but SportsGrid’s model has faith in him with a projection of 94.33.
This season without Jones, Ridley has gone 5-110-0 against the Bears, 8-136-0 against the Panthers, and 6-50-1 against the Raiders. He has 32 targets between those three games.
The Chargers do boast a strong pass defense, led by cornerback Casey Hayward. But Ridley is going to see significant volume in what has potential to be a shootout with Justin Herbert looking to bounce back from an embarrassing outing against the Patriots last week.
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