SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Week 15 NFL Player Props
In past weeks, this post has focused on some value plays in the props market — guys, you haven’t thought much about this season.
Well, we’re firing up the studs in Week 15, although one of them is on the under. And that player is … the favorite to win the MVP award and reigning Super Bowl MVP? Huh?
Let me explain.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
The SportsGrid model is going under on Mahomes’ crazy (and justifiable) 314.50 passing yard total. SportsGrid projects Mahomes for a mere 292.89 this week against the Saints.
Don’t look at Mahomes’ 2020 game log for confidence on this prop. He has gone over 340 passing yards in five of his last six games. Really, this comes down to the matchup against a stout Saints passing defense that ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing just 209.2 passing yards per game.
Another reason for SportsGrid’s pessimism on Mahomes is the model’s optimism for running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The SportsGrid model thinks the Saints are susceptible against the run, projecting CEH for 62.42 rushing yards compared to his 40.50 total.
Now, you could say Mahomes is matchup proof, which is reasonable. But if you were ever going to bet under on his passing yard total, this would be the week to do it.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Drew Brees will be back under center for the Saints this week against Kansas City, which means Kamara should return to his usual production. His receiving yards total this week on FanDuel is 49.50, but SportsGrid projects him for 63.72.
This one is pretty straightforward. In the nine games this season before Brees got hurt, Kamara averaged 72 receiving yards and 7.4 catches per game.
Without Michael Thomas, the Saints’ versatile star will be an even bigger part of the gameplan on both the ground and through the air.
This number is one that bettors should look to get on top of right now, especially in a game that might see the Saints playing catchup with the Chiefs.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders
After returning to form last week against the Saints, Sanders has another reasonable rushing yards total this week on FanDuel, which is 63.50. SportsGrid’s model projects him for 72.78 this week against the Cardinals.
Sanders was the Eagles playmaker that benefitted most from Jalen Hurts’ promotion to a starting role under center. He rushed for 115 yards last week in a win over the Saints on just 14 carries, looking like the running back that so many of us picked in the first round of fantasy drafts this year.
Even with two duds in Week 12 and 13, Sanders has eclipsed that 63.50 total in seven of his 10 games this season. In fact, he’s gone over 80 six times.
The Cardinals’ run defense is in the middle of the pack, allowing 119.5 yards per game on the ground. Expect that average to go up after a matchup with Hurts and Sanders in Week 15.
Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders
Do you know who else will benefit from Brees’ return and Thomas’ absence? Emmanuel Sanders. That’s why SportsGrid’s model projects Sanders for 67.07 receiving yards compared to his 49.50 total on FanDuel.
In the four games that Sanders played with Brees and without Thomas this season, he has gone over that 49.50 number three times. As mentioned with Kamara, there is serious potential for a pass-heavy game script against the Chiefs, making this an even more attractive number.