SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Week 16 NFL Player Props
This week, we’ll focus on a quarterback that everyone will be excited to bet against, a pair of skill-position studs, and someone who is benefitting fantasy owners who found him late in the season.
Let’s find some value with the SportsGrid player props model in Week 16:
Rams QB Jared Goff
Don’t look now, but the Seahawks might actually have a capable defensive unit.
That bodes poorly for Goff, whose passing yards total this week against Seattle is 276.50 on FanDuel. SportsGrid’s model projects him for 233.05.
In three of the Seahawks’ past four games, they have not allowed more than 180 passing yards. (Full disclosure: Those games were against the Eagles, Giants, and Jets.) In fact, Seattle has allowed a passing yardage total under Goff’s 276.50 number in each of its last five games.
For his part, Goff has thrown for fewer than 210 yards in three of the Rams’ last four games. He has been inconsistent this season and has only gone over his Week 16 passing total six times this season.
Packers RB Aaron Jones
Jones’ total is 70.50 rushing yards on FanDuel, but SportsGrid has him at 87.13 for the Packers’ Sunday night matchup with the Titans.
Let’s start with Jones’ strong matchup. The Titans have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in four of their last six games, including 123 against the Lions last week. Jadeveon Clowney is out for the season, and Tennessee’s front seven has not impressed this year.
Then there’s Jones. He has gone over this total in three of the Packers’ last four games. The one time he missed on it was a 69-yard performance against the Lions in Week 14.
Jones has two outings of 130 or more rushing yards in two of the past three games. While Derrick Henry is expected to go off at Lambeau on Sunday night, Jones is getting into his best form just at the right time for Green Bay. Expect both backs to have huge games in primetime, but be sure to back Jones to go over his total.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill
With an elite matchup against the Falcons, Hill’s FanDuel receiving yards total this week is 78.50. SportsGrid sees value in that big number, projecting him for 102.37.
This is a simple one. The Falcons allow the second-most passing yards in the NFL at 287.7 per game. They’re facing the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the league’s best offense.
Atlanta’s offense is potent enough that it might actually hang with Kansas City for some of this game. Also, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, leaving the Chiefs with a decimated running game led by an unconvincing Le’Veon Bell.
Hill went over this total in four straight games between Weeks 8-12 (Week 10 was the Chiefs’ bye week) but has only gone over 78.50 once in Kansas City’s last three. Given the matchup and his ability to take over a game with his unmatched speed, expect a big game from Hill this week.
Texans WR Chad Hansen
Hansen’s receiving yards total on FanDuel is 39.50 against the Bengals, but SportsGrid projects him for 52.30.
There’s not much to know about Hansen, a former fourth-round pick of the Jets in 2017. Since being released in 2018, he has spent time with the Patriots, Titans, Broncos, and Saints’ practice squads before signing with the Texans in 2019.
After Randall Cobb’s season-ending injury, Will Fuller’s suspension, and Kenny Stills’ release, Hansen has stepped into three-receiver sets as a reliable target for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Hansen has at least 55 yards in all three of his games this season, and there’s no reason to believe the Texans won’t ride Watson’s arm again against Cincinnati. Houston will be without Duke Johnson, leaving David Johnson as its only viable rushing option.
Expect another big game from Watson and Hansen, who has 17 targets in three games, to get at least 40 receiving yards.