SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Week 17 NFL Player Props
If you’ve been following this weekly post, there is no doubt that you have enjoyed a profitable 2020 NFL season in the player prop market.
For Week 17, we’re going to focus on three unsung numbers with great value, and for the fourth, we’re going back to one of the classics.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
Nope, we’re not targeting Tannehill’s passing number. It’s his legs that the SportsGrid model is banking on against the Texans.
Tannehill’s rushing yards total this week on FanDuel is 12.50, while SportsGrid’s model projects him for 20.10.
Tannehill’s mobility is well above average at the quarterback position, and that has shown over the past six weeks. He has eclipsed that 12.50 total five times in that span, including going over 25 four times and 30 three times.
This is one that might not jump out at you immediately, but it’s one that provides plenty of value.
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
This is another number that isn’t flashy but has value. Pollard’s rushing yards total on FanDuel is 26.50, but SportsGrid projects him for 36.61.
Workload hasn’t been an issue of late for Pollard, even when Ezekiel Elliott has been healthy. Pollard has at least eight carries in his past three games that have seen Elliott active.
Assuming he gets at least those eight carries, this comes down to your belief in Pollard getting 3.5 yards per tote. If he does that, you’re golden. And the second-year man might not even need that much run to get to 27 rushing yards.
The Giants’ defense ranks 16th in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA, so the matchup isn’t particularly difficult. For a player like Pollard, who has played well throughout the season, this prop presents good value.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf
Hello, old friend.
We haven’t gone back to the Metcalf well in quite a long time, but his matchup this week against the 49ers and reduced total give him value in Week 17.
FanDuel’s number for Metcalf against San Francisco is 64.50 receiving yards, while SportsGrid’s model projects him for 76.72 yards.
Early in the season, Metcalf’s totals were around 70.50, and bettors were rejoicing at the end of every Seahawks game. The second-year stud went over 90 receiving yards in seven of the Seahawks’ first eight games.
Since then, Metcalf has slowed down, as has his quarterback, Russell Wilson. Metcalf has eclipsed 90 yards just once in the past seven games.
This week, though, brings an NFC West rematch that saw Metcalf have his biggest game of the season. Back in Week 8, he torched San Francisco for 12 catches, 161 yards, and two touchdowns.
Metcalf has 43 targets in his last five games, so it’s not like he isn’t getting looks from Wilson. In a big game for Seattle, back D.K. to have what for him is a normal performance.
Packers TE Robert Tonyan
Against the Bears in Week 17, Tonyan’s receiving yards total on FanDuel is 32.50. SportsGrid’s model sees value, projecting him for 59.73.
According to Yahoo!, the Bears are giving up an average of 5.6 receptions, 59.5 receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
In the Packers’ Week 12 massacring of the Bears at Lambeau Field, Tonyan went 5-67-1 against Chicago.
This is a great matchup for any tight end, especially one in the midst of a career year with the favorite to be the MVP as his quarterback—another easy bet for Tonyan.