SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Favorite Wild Card NFL Player Props
It’s playoff time. There are fewer games, but the props world never sleeps.
Here are the SportsGrid model’s four favorite plays for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL:
Browns QB Baker Mayfield
Mayfield’s passing yards total on FanDuel is 234.50, which the SportsGrid model finds value in. He is projected for 268.43.
The Steelers did top Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA against the pass this season, but Mayfield has been rolling of late. His 196 yards last week against Pittsburgh were his lowest since inclement weather forced him to just 132 in Week 10 against the Texans.
From Weeks 12-16, Mayfield comfortably went over this weekend’s passing yards total. He threw for at least 285 yards in four of those five games and more than 330 twice.
It isn’t the best matchup, but the weather forecast looks sunny all weekend in Pittsburgh. Back Baker in his playoff debut.
Seahawks RB Chris Carson
Among running backs playing this weekend, SportsGrid sees the most value in Carson’s rushing yards total. His FanDuel total on the ground this weekend is 60.50, while SportsGrid’s model projects him for 71.85.
Another less-than-ideal matchup here, with the Rams’ defense ranking third in Rush DVOA this season. But Carson is playing well of late.
The lead Seahawks back is averaging 4.73 yards per carry over his last five games, during which he exceeded this total four times.
One of those games came against the Rams in Week 16, when Carson ran for 69 yards on 16 carries.
Seattle has relied on its run game more and more as the season has progressed, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in the playoffs. Back Carson to get over this number.
Bills RB Devin Singletary
After playing just one half in Week 17, Singletary is a target of SportsGrid’s model in the wild card round. His rushing yards total on FanDuel is 29.50, while SportsGrid projects him for 40.47 yards on the ground.
After seemingly losing his lead-back role to Zach Moss in the middle of the season, Singletary bounced back from Weeks 12-16 by averaging 5.2 yards per carry on 54 attempts. He had just seven yards last season, but the Bills didn’t play their starters past the second quarter.
While the Colts’ have a stout run defense, which ranks ninth in Rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders, their secondary ranks eighth against the pasts. There’s no easy way to attack Indianapolis’ defense.
Expect Singletary to get the majority of carries in the Bills’ backfield. If he averages just four yards per carry, that’s just eight to get over this total. It’s a very reasonable wager for Buffalo’s leading rusher.
Browns WR Jarvis Landry
Landry’s total this week on FanDuel is 53.50 receiving yards, but he’s projected for the highest positive value difference by SportsGrid’s model, which has him at 68.47.
As Mayfield’s level of play has increased, so has Landry’s. Now the Browns’ lead receiver, Landry has 34 catches for 369 yards over his last five games.
He has only gone over that 53.50 number in three of those five games, but he gained 52 and 51 yards in the other two games.
Landry has 44 targets in his last five games, making him the clear go-to guy for Mayfield. The SportsGrid model likes the Browns QB this week, which means we like Landry too.