SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Week 14 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 14 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
The first SportsGrid five-star betting model pick for Week 14 is the Seattle Seahawks laying -13.5 at home. The Seahawks just lost a Week 13 matchup with the New York Giants, a team that has had a fair amount of progression: their defense has come alive and been stout (top 15) the last month, while the offense has played inspired football. The Seahawks were perhaps in a flat spot facing them.
The Jets are very possibly outright tanking: the “cover-0 blitz” heard ‘round football resulting in a Henry Ruggs last second, fourth-down touchdown got defensive coordinator Gregg Williams fired. The offense still has no identity, and its best players: Sam Darnold, left tackle Mekhi Becton, and wide receiver Jameson Crowder all have trouble staying healthy.
The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, the league leader in receiving yardage — DK Metcalf, and a twitchy, lightning-fast slot wide receiver in Tyler Lockett. They also finally have running back Chris Carson healthy. The Jets gave it their all to beat the Raiders in what was situationally a tough spot for them last week and should probably come out flat to continue the tank for Trevor Lawrence.
Baltimore Ravens (-109) at Cleveland Browns
It seems like a lifetime ago, but way back in Week 1, the Browns played this very same Ravens team and got absolutely throttled. Lamar Jackson and company ran wild against the Browns. Fast forward to Week 14, and it’s harder to find a case of “buy low/sell high” teams than the Ravens and the Browns. The Browns locked in their first above-.500 season, destroying the Titans last week 41-35 (the final score is very misleading for how the game was played: there were a lot of Titan garbage points).
Meanwhile, the last things the world remembered about Baltimore was issues with their offense, a COVID outbreak, a loss on a Wednesday to the Steelers with RGIII quarterbacking, and beating the hapless Cowboys on Monday Night. Jackson is back healthy. The defense looks to have stud defensive tackles Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell back.
The Browns have feasted the last two weeks on weak run defenses from Jacksonville and Tennessee. Cleveland running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt won’t find giant holes to run through like they have the last few weeks, and Baker Mayfield, like most quarterbacks, has his play drop off substantially when under a lot of pressure. As good as the Browns’ offensive line has been this year, Baker Mayfield is going to have a hard time putting up points on a motivated Ravens team still trying to fight for their playoff lives. Stylistically, it’s a game that very much favors the Ravens to run all over a Browns defense that de-prioritizes the safety and linebacker positions and still has injuries to their cornerback unit.
Indianapolis Colts (-141) at Las Vegas Raiders
The next pick from the betting model is to take the Colts against the Las Vegas Raiders. That blown coverage that was referenced in the Jets game? That was the definition of a lucky win against the worst team in the NFL for the Raiders. The Colts are the absolute opposite side of the defensive spectrum: they’re by most metrics the best defense in the NFL, and one that applies a ton of pressure on the quarterback from star defensive front players like DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard, and Bobby Okereke, in addition to crafty veteran Justin Houston. They also have a formidable secondary, unlike the Jets, so just tossing the ball to Darren Waller and Nelson Agholor with no one within five yards of them probably won’t fly this time.
The Raiders run defense is still bottom-10 in the league, and it’s the strength of the Colts’ offense: that big, brutal offensive line and running backs Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and rookie Jonathan Taylor bludgeoning teams for chunk yardage and eating the clock to control the time of possession. A suffocating defense paired with an offense that is able to control the clock (and still mix in big shot passes from quarterback Phillip Rivers to ascendant pass-catchers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Mo Alie-Cox, as well as old reliable, T.Y. Hilton) is one that will give the Raiders issues. It won’t be a walk in the park this week for the silver-and-black. Colts should win here by a field goal or more.