SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Week 15 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 15 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Bears come to U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to face a Vikings team that is licking their wounds from a thorough beating by Tom Brady and the Bucs last week in the SportsGrid model’s first five-star betting selection. These are two teams whose performances last week were likely aberrations.
After starting 5-1, the Bears came plummeting back to earth over the last six games, with the exception of destroying Houston last week. The Bears aren’t officially out of the playoff hunt yet, but this week should be the one to end that.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are locked with the Arizona Cardinals for the seventh playoff spot and have their game plan set in place that they don’t deviate from. They work Dalvin Cook tirelessly and complement with the passing game. The defense, one maligned, has round into form under head coach Mike Zimmer, who will have likely chewed into his team all week for giving up a ton of points to the Bucs last Sunday: this season, just due to getting his defense to league average alone, Zimmer has turned in one of his best coaching performances.
The Bears remain the Bears: a quarterback controversy, a great defense, and Allen Robinson being the lone skill-position star. After embarrassing the Texans last week, and with the Vikings needing this win to stay in the playoff hunt, it’s likely that the Vikings will come ready to play on Sunday, and thus taking the -3.5 is the play here.
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins
The second betting model prediction is the Patriots +2.5 at the Miami Dolphins. This may seem like a short line, but there are several factors that make the Patriots the play upon looking into it. The Patriots have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt: they effectively have to run the table to still be in it.
The Dolphins, flourishing at 8-5 under second-year coach Brian Flores, are starting quarterback Tua Tagovioloa. This is where we remind you that Bill Belichick has only ever lost three times in a head coaching career spanning 20 years in New England to opposing rookie quarterbacks. Further, the teams are mirrors of each other: Flores has helped build the team in the mirror image of his prior boss, where he was an assistant coach for years under Belichick. Anything Flores will likely throw at Belichick is something that he likely learned from him as an assistant.
Stylistically, the game favors New England, too: the Dolphins are bottom-five in rushing defense in the NFL, instead choosing to focus on building a pass defense from the back to the front. This plays right into Belichick’s plans, where we will likely see a heavy dose of Cam Newton and backs Damien Harris and James White.
The Dolphins are a nice story with some very solid young pieces, but they’re still a year or two away from being a powerhouse. New England is the play here.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Over 45
In an NFL season where offensive holding calls have plummeted, and defensive pass interference calls have increased, the NFL has made it known they want higher scoring to keep people entertained. The league has followed suit: the average score of a game this year has hovered around 49.5 or so. So for this line to be one of the lower ones of the week, we get some value on taking the over.
First, we get a Kyle Shanahan-coached offense playing a bottom-four passing defense in a dome, featuring yards-after-catch monsters like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. We get a Shanahan rushing attack against the worst rushing defense in football. On the flip side, we get a Niners defense decimated by injuries this year, and one still missing who Aaron Rodgers believes is the best linebacker in football, Fred Warner, in addition to losing Nick Bosa early in the season.
The Cowboys’ offensive line is still in shambles, but Andy Dalton should be able to throw the ball against a team lacking a proper edge pass rush. Yes, cornerback Richard Sherman is back for the Niners, and he’s still a star, but he can’t cover the three-headed monster of Dallas pass catchers by himself: he may blanket Amari Cooper, but then Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb will have a big game. There are just too many options, and so this game should sail over the 45 projected points pretty easily.