SportsGrid’s Betting Model’s Week 17 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 17 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
This week appears to be “overs” week!
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over 44
A 44 total in a 2020 NFL season is still seen to be on the lower end of the projected totals spectrum put out by sportsbooks. Even if the Chiefs sit their starters, it does not appear that the Chargers will be sitting theirs. Chiefs backup Chad Henne will still be at the helm of an Andy Reid-designed super-charged offense that should still be good for 14-17 points against a still very-injured Chargers defense. The Chargers, meanwhile, since switching over to Offensive Rookie of the Year front runner Justin Herbert, have scored over 30 points in 8 of their last 10 games. Combine this with a Chiefs defense that will likely be looking to just have players healthy and get out of Week 17 without any injuries, and this game should sail comfortably over the 44 posted total.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Over 39.5
This is one of those recency bias posted totals where the public is just remembering what they saw last: a Cardinals team only put up 12 points against the Niners, and the Rams had a rough game as well against the Seahawks for the NFC West title, whose defense has rounded into form playing at home. Throw that game out. Yes, the Rams are starting former AAF quarterback John Wolford. The Rams will also have Sean McVay still coordinating their offense against a defense that is several levels below what the Seahawks are at home. There should be a heavy lean on the run game, and a solid dose of play-action passes to wide receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp against the leaky Cardinals back-7. On the flip side, the Cardinals need to win to make the playoffs (and need a little help from Green Bay) and catch a Rams team that allowed the Cardinals to put up 28 points on them last time. At the very least, just on principle alone, the fact that the posted total is 39.5 in the year 2020 is something to lean over on.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 49.5
The Jaguars, now locked in as owners of the No. 1 draft pick and the worst record in the league, travel to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that needs to show up and win in order to have a chance at making the playoffs. While they are owners of a league-worst defense (which is hard to believe given they were historically good just 3 seasons ago), they’re running into a team that fields an offense that isn’t built to blow teams out. Fans know Phil Rivers and TY Hilton, but the bread and butter of the team remains utilizing backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines to bludgeon opposing defenses with the run game: the Colts don’t typically blow too many teams out just given how slowly they play. On the flip side, while the Jags offense is entertaining, they run into an Indianapolis defense, which is playing for their playoff lives led by stars DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard. The Jaguars needed a garbage-time touchdown to even get to 17 points against a Bears defense, which is on the level of the Colts. The Colts should play low-risk football and win going away here: with such a high posted total, going under is likely the right play here.