Super Bowl Early Line: Public Money vs. Sharp Money
No game is quite like the Super Bowl as it is completely dominated by the public money that pours in from all corners of the world. Last year, the American Gaming Association estimated that approximately $6.8 billion was wagered in Super Bowl LIV with $300 million being legally bet in the United States. With this kind of handle, sportsbooks are less likely to take a position against the public for the big game. Instead, they aim to manage their risk.
The Super Bowl might be the only exception where public money is actually respected due to the sheer volume. With Kansas City being a three-point favorite, this spread is probably right where it should be, considering it will essentially be a home game for Tampa Bay.
We likely won’t get much movement until the game draws nearer but don’t be surprised if some sportsbooks get antsy and decide to take a position on Sunday if they can find an edge by fading the public.
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