Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 10
The odds to win the Super Bowl for the 32 teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — shifted again after nine weeks of action. Here’s a closer look at the five teams we give the best odds of lifting the Super Bowl this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +350 (22.2%)
numberFire Title Odds: 18.2%
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to be the favorites to win the Super Bowl, as they now sit at 8-1. Their overall title odds, according to our models, have increased a tad since last week, going up to 18.2% from 17.8% a week ago. The explosive nature of their offense continues to drive their title hopes, with no team ranked higher on that side of the ball, according to nERD. If Patrick Mahomes continues to do Patrick Mahomes things, it’s hard to imagine any team overtaking them as favorites in 2020.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +600 (14.3%)
numberFire Title Odds: 13.5%
Despite improving to 8-0, the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ title odds dipped slightly to 13.5% from 16.0% a week ago. They remain second favorites for the Super Bowl with the bookies as well as the second-ranked team by our metrics. But this shift is likely due to the unconvincing way the Steelers dealt with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. The Steelers are ranked 11th in offensive nERD and will need to improve in that area if they are to upset the Chiefs down the line.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +950 (9.5%)
numberFire Title Odds: 12.4%
After defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens are now the top-ranked team in the NFL, according to nERD. This is in large part to their defense, as the offense continues to look out of sorts. The Ravens experienced slight shifts in their odds, both with the bookies and by our numbers. They were available at +1000 a week ago with an 11.7% chance of ultimate triumph by numberFire metrics. These figures now read +950 and 12.4%.
New Orleans Saints
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +750 (11.8%)
numberFire Title Odds: 10.4%
The New Orleans Saints were the most notable shifters from Week 9 after they dealt with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night. They are now in at +750, a big move from +1300 a week ago, while their numberFire title odds have doubled. We gave them a 5.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl a week ago, and their odds sit at 10.4% now. The Saints are starting to get a lot of their players back, and they look like one of the true powerhouses of the NFC.
Green Bay Packers
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1000 (9.1%)
numberFire Title Odds: 9.4%
The Green Bay Packers‘ comfortable victory over the depleted San Francisco 49ers last Thursday has bolstered their title chances, per both oddsmakers and our algorithm. They’re now available at odds of +1000 — down from +1200 last week. Their title odds have jumped from 5.3% last week to 9.4% by our metrics.
The race for the Lombardi looks like it will be run between three old guys in Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and two young superstars in Mahomes and Lamar Jackson (although we can’t write off Tom Brady just yet). Will the youngsters have too much in the tank for the veterans, or will the experience of battle carry one of these warhorses to ultimate triumph? This is going to be quite a run in.