Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 11
Wild weather and affected many of the games played in Week 10, but the fickle nature of Mother Nature was not enough to keep the teams from playing on. As a result, the season continued on it’s merry and weird way as we approach the teeth of the 2020 NFL campaign.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for the 32 teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — shifted again after ten weeks of action. Here’s a closer look at the five teams whose odds of winning it all have improved the most since the start of the season.
Current FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +4100 (2.4%)
Current numberFire Title Odds: 1.4%
In the week before the start of the season, the Miami Dolphins were available at +8000 to win it all. Only six teams had longer odds than Miami’s to win the Super Bowl. After 10 weeks of NFL action, the Dolphins are now at +4100. They are currently on a five-game winning streak with three of those victories coming since they turned to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
According to nERD, the Dolphins have a top-five defense this season. They are only the 13th favorites to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy, but their turnaround in just over a season and a half under Brian Flores has been nothing short of fantastic. Miami is not going to go quietly this season, either, with numberFire giving them a 64.2% of making the playoffs.
Current FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2500 (3.8%)
Current numberFire Title Odds: 3.5%
Few people expected too much from the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. Back in August, they had the fourth-longest odds in the NFC West to win the Super Bowl. Only five NFC teams had longer odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook than the Cardinals did as Arizona was available at +5000. But the epic play of quarterback Kyler Murray has helped propel them to a 6-3 record and a top-10 ranking, according to nERD.
The Cards now have championship odds of +2500 and are the sixth-favorites for glory among NFC squads. But they are still behind two of their division rivals, a testament to the strength of the NFC West.
Green Bay Packers
Current FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1000 (9.1%)
Current numberFire Title Odds: 11.1%
Despite a 13-3 record in 2019, oddsmakers weren’t too high on the Green Bay Packers coming into 2020. In August, their Super Bowl odds of +3100 were worse than the odds of seven other teams in the NFC, including the Minnesota Vikings. Well, even oddsmakers make mistakes. The Packers are currently on offer at +1000 with only the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead of them in the NFC.
According to the data at numberFire, we give them a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than either of the Saints and Bucs. Our odds have the Packers at 11.1%, with the Bucs at 8.6% and the Saints at 5.3%.
Los Angeles Rams
Current FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1600 (5.9%)
Current numberFire Title Odds: 8.4%
Oddsmakers didn’t think too highly of the Los Angeles Rams back in August. However, they were not dramatically low on the Rams, either, giving them odds of +3500, which was good for 17th among the 32 NFL teams — slap bang in the middle of the pack. It would be fair to say that the Rams have gone some way toward correcting this interpretation across the last 10 weeks, as they are now on offer at +1600. Only four NFC teams are available at shorter odds.
The Rams are ranked second in nERD at present thanks mainly to their defense, which ranks third. We give them an 8.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year, better chances than the Seattle Seahawks (6.7%), who the oddsmakers have ahead of the Rams (+1400), so there’s still some betting value on LA.
Current FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +600 (14.3%)
Current numberFire Title Odds: 14.5%
The bookies didn’t hate the Pittsburgh Steelers coming into the season — we highlighted them as a good value bet — but they were not exactly overwhelmed with expectations going into 2020. They had the fifth-best odds in the AFC at +2500 but sat a long way behind the highly favored duo of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Both of those teams were available at +650. Now, only the Chiefs have shorter odds of Super Bowl glory than the 9-0 Steelers, who are available at +600.
The Chiefs are also the only team that numberFire’s metrics believe have a better chance of capturing a Super Bowl crown than the Steelers do. We give the Chiefs an 18% chance, compared to the 14.5% chance we give the Steelers.