Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 17
With just one week of regular-season football to be played, there are still 18 teams in with a chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season. This week was notable in the betting markets as, for the first time in many a week, the odds on the Kansas City Chiefs winning it all actually decreased. Despite KC clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16, the Chiefs’ odds went from +175 to +190. While they beat Atlanta, it was a thoroughly uninspiring showing.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||nF Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+190||34.5%||19.3%|
|Green Bay Packers||+550||15.4%||16.5%|
|New Orleans Saints||+750||11.8%||11.5%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1200||7.7%||6.8%|
|Los Angeles Rams||+2500||3.8%||5.5%|
|New York Giants||+25000||0.4%||0.1%|
The Chiefs’ odds are still unappealing to those in search of value in the market, per our algorithm. We give them a 19.3% chance of successfully defending their title, but the +190 line implies odds of 34.5%.
There isn’t significant value to be found on any of the top teams, but the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills do offer a little betting value. Let’s focus on Buffalo. The Bills are fourth favorites according to FanDuel Sportsbook while we also believe only three teams are more likely winners of the Super Bowl than the Bills. But according to nERD, they are the top-ranked offense in the NFL at the moment, and they are the only passing game rated higher than Kansas City’s.
We see betting value in both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Rams. Pittsburgh got a key win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16, and we hand them 8.2% Super Bowl odds, compared to their implied odds of 4.8%. And while the Rams aren’t a lock for the postseason, our model gives them a 5.5% chance to win it all while their +2500 line implies title odds of only 3.8%.