Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 3
The spate of injuries suffered across the NFL in Week 2 led to some crazy games. The results of those games — and indeed all 16 that were played last week — saw distinct shifts in the fortunes of many of the teams.
Some teams continued a strong start to their campaign. A few more brought themselves back to something approaching respectability, while for others, the realization that this will not be their year might be beginning to form in their minds.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for a lot of teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — look quite different than they did a week ago. Let’s dive in and take a look at five of the biggest movers after last week’s action.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2800 (3.4%)
The 2-0 Arizona Cardinals are a team on the rise, and they have seen a dramatic change to their odds of winning the Super Bowl. This time last week they could be had at +4000, but now they are down to +2800, which implies odds of 3.4%. This makes them only the 14th favorites to lift the trophy, but it is still an improvement.
I wouldn’t be rushing out to put all of your money on the Cardinals, however. They are ranked 17th by our nERD metric, and their title chances are just 1.2%, per our numbers. Being in possibly the toughest division in the NFL, especially with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams looking better than expected so far, has put a cap on the Cardinals’ odds. But still, the early signs are encouraging for Kliff Kingsbury and the Cards.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +13000 (0.8%)
Even a loss in Week 2 has not dampened enthusiasm for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Gardner Minshew mania. The Jaguars are in at +13000 (still a massive long shot), which is down from +17000 a week ago. But as with the Cardinals, we are somewhat more pessimistic about their chances of glory. Their title odds of 0.1% are down from 0.3% a week ago. It’s a fun story, but it’s unlikely to be a fairytale one.
New York Jets
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +22000 (0.5%)
If the Jaguars are threatening fairytales, then the New York Jets are living a nightmare at the moment. A dispiriting loss to the San Francisco 49ers has seen Gang Green’s Super Bowl odds plummet to +22000, making them officially the longest long shot among all 32 NFL teams.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +18000 (0.6%)
The Jets were not the only team to see their Super Bowl odds fall dramatically. Despite a gutsy effort in their loss to the Buffalo Bills, the 0-2 Miami Dolphins can now be had at odds of +18000 after being on offer at +12000 a week ago.
The Jets are ahead of the Dolphins in terms of nERD (-6.14 to -6.63), but it hardly matters. Both of these AFC East teams have 0.0% title odds, joining the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants as the four teams with virtually no hope of postseason glory, according to our model.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +9000 (1.1%)
The Houston Texans will be thanking absolutely no one for their schedule to start the 2020 season. After a Week 1 loss to the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans got a Week 2 game against the current favorites to lift the next trophy in the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens comfortably dealt with Bill O’Brien’s charges, sending the AFC South champions of 2019 to an 0-2 start.
The Texans had been +5000 to win it all at the start of the season, and their loss to the Chiefs did not affect these odds last week. But the defeat to the Ravens has seen their odds jump to +9000. The Texans are currently 26th in terms of nERD, and their title odds are down to 0.7%.