Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 6
Injuries and upsets aplenty in Week 5 have seriously shaken up the betting markets for the NFL. The odds to win the Super Bowl for a lot of teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — differ greatly from those same numbers just one week ago. Here are five teams whose markets shifted considerably after last week’s action.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +550 (15.4%) numberFire Title Odds: 17%
numberFire Title Odds: 17%
It may seem odd to talk about the Baltimore Ravens here given that their odds to win the Super Bowl improved from +600 to +550. But according to numberFire’s odds, they are now the favorites to lift the trophy. Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs led the way with 20.9% odds. But after their surprising loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, coupled with the Ravens improving to 4-1, we now give the Birds a better chance of lifting their third Lombardi trophy at the end of the season. The Ravens climbed from 10.8% up to 17%, with the Chiefs now at 14.8%.
But a lot can still change between now and then.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +6500 (1.5%)numberFire Title Odds: 1.1%
At the start of the season, the Carolina Panthers were available at +12000 to win the Super Bowl. After falling to 0-2, their odds climbed to +21000. But after three straight wins, all without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers are on the move again. At the time of writing, their odds are +6500. They are still quite a ways back in the betting, with 10 NFC teams having shorter odds than them. But for a team looked upon as also-rans not long ago, the signs are getting brighter.
Las Vegas Raiders
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +4400 (2.2%)numberFire Title Odds: 0.9%
Cleaning the clocks of the reigning Super Bowl champions is one surefire way to draw attention to your ball club. The Las Vegas Raiders are certainly benefiting from such attention after they took down the Chiefs in Week 5. The Raiders saw their Super Bowl odds drop from +10,000 to +4400, the second-biggest drop of the week after the Panthers.
But we’re not rushing out to put grannie’s savings on the Raiders bringing home their first title in almost four decades. They rank 17th in nERD and have a 0.9% chance of overall victory by numberFire odds. But football seems more fun when the Raiders are fun.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +4400 (2.2%)numberFire Title Odds: 1.0%
Winning a game while losing your quarterback is a guaranteed way to see your odds of winning the Super Bowl increase. This fate has befallen the Dallas Cowboys, who lost Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury in their victory over the New York Giants on Sunday. The Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds were +3000 a week ago but now stand at +4400. We have them at 1.0% distant longshots to capture a sixth Lombardi, all but assuming Andy Dalton cannot repeat the feats of Jeff Hostetler and Nick Foles as saviors at the backup quarterback spot.
San Francisco 49ers
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +4800 (2%)numberFire Title Odds: 0.5%
No one likes to acknowledge the existence of the Super Bowl hangover. But it is beginning to look like the good people in the San Francisco 49ers organization are coming around to the idea that such a thing exists. The team’s beatdown at the hands of the Miami Dolphins on Sunday saw their title odds nearly double. They were +2500 at this time last week but are now available at +4800. Their title odds with by numberFire’s metrics have also dropped appreciably. Before Sunday, we gave them a 2.7% chance to win it all. As you read this, they are at 0.5%.