Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 8
And then there was one. One unbeaten team, one winless team. The 2020 NFL landscape is beginning to take shape, with the legitimate contenders proving themselves while the pretenders begin to fall away.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for the 32 teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — shift again after seven weeks of action. Here are five situations where the markets have shifted considerably heading into Week 8.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +850 (10.5%)numberFire Title Odds: 7.5%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers put on their second consecutive clinic in Week 7, dispatching the plucky Las Vegas Raiders on their way to a fifth win of the season. The Bucs are the best team in the NFL, according to nERD. For the first time, the bookmakers have them as the favorites to win the Super Bowl among the NFC teams.
Despite their nERD ranking, numberFire is not quite ready to crown them as the cream of their conference just yet. Their Super Bowl odds are 7.5%, trailing both the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers in the NFC.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +950 (9.5%)numberFire Title Odds: 10%
The last unbeaten team in the NFL in 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers are moving up in the betting to claim the ultimate prize at the end of the season. The 6-0 Steelers were available at +1200 a week ago. But after seeing off the Tennessee Titans in Week 7, the Steelers are now in at +950.
The Steelers are fourth favorites with both the bookies and by numberFire odds. But they are still seen as something of a longshot in the AFC behind the Chiefs and the Ravens. That could change after this week when the Steelers take on the Ravens. The Steelers are 3.5 underdogs according to FD Sportsbook.
The NFC West
All four teams in the NFC West saw their lines shift after the last week. The previously unbeaten Seattle Seahawks fell from +800 to +1000 after losing a thriller to the Arizona Cardinals. They saw their odds jump to +3300 from +3900.
All four teams currently boast a winning record, although the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl by our metrics remains the Seahawks. We give them an 8.8% chance of glory.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +13000 (0.8%)numberFire Title Odds: 0.1%
There are not many teams that we are ready to close the book on in 2020. Indeed, numberFire has only five teams with a 0% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys are in danger of joining this group, however. Their title odds fell to +13000 after they were dismantled by Washington, while we have them clinging on with a 0.1% chance of lifting a sixth Lombardi.
A loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the clash between the “cream” of the NFC East this weekend could be curtains for them in 2020.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +30000 (0.3%)numberFire Title Odds: 0%
Speaking of teams with absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl in 2020, we come to the Atlanta Falcons. Our hopes for them have never been high. At the start of the season, numberFire gave them a 1.5% chance of winning it all this season. But after another comical defeat in a season of comical defeats, this time to the Detroit Lions, our numbers have finally thrown in the towel.