Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 9
Week 8 of the NFL season has come and gone. There is still an unbeaten team, there is still a team yet to win a game, and there is still plenty to play for as we reach the midway point of the regular season.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for the 32 teams — both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook — shifted again after eight weeks of action. Here’s a closer look at five AFC teams who experienced some movement in the markets after the last round of games.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +600 (14.3%) numberFire Title Odds: 16%
numberFire Title Odds: 16%
The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to catch the eye of the bookmakers as they keep racking up victories. Their Super Bowl odds are in at +600, making them the second favorites to lift the trophy. This is the first time all season that the top two favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook have consisted of a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers’ odds of overall success have increased according to numberFire’s metrics, too. We have them with a 16.0% chance of winning their seventh Lombardi trophy, an increase of 6.0 percentage points from last week.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1000 (9.1%)numberFire Title Odds: 11.7%
The Steelers’ rise has coincided with a dip for their AFC North foes, the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens’ Week 8 loss to the Steelers saw Baltimore’s title odds fall to +1000, the longest odds on them all year long.
We still have the Ravens ranked ahead of the Steelers in terms of nERD — the Ravens are third while the Steelers are down at fourth — but the Ravens’ title winning probability by our numbers is down to 11.7%. We gave them a 12.5% chance last week.
Las Vegas Raiders
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +5000 (2%) numberFire Title Odds: 1.0%
numberFire Title Odds: 1.0%
The Las Vegas Raiders are stubbornly refusing to go gently into that goodnight in 2020, and their Week 8 victory over the Cleveland Browns saw the bookies warm to them considerably. The Raiders are available at +5000, still longshots for the ultimate prize but much shorter odds than we got on them at this stage last week (+8500).
The Raiders are currently the 17th-ranked team by nERD and have just a 1.0% chance of winning the Super Bowl, per our numbers. Still, if I’d told you after eight weeks of the season the Raiders would have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the New England Patriots did, I suspect you might have thought me a fool.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2800 (3.4%) numberFire Title Odds: 3.3%
numberFire Title Odds: 3.3%
The Tennessee Titans continue to see their title odds get longer after their second straight defeat. Their Week 8 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals saw them go out to +2800 after they were available at +2100 a week ago. This loss, coupled with other events around the league, didn’t hurt their title chances too much in our eyes. They had 3.5% championship odds last week and have a 3.3% chance now. There is still hope.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +6500 (1.5%) numberFire Title Odds: 0.5%
numberFire Title Odds: 0.5%
The Cleveland Browns once again showed that they can put up points at will when they win but be offensively shut down in games they ultimately lose, failing to score a touchdown in a windy loss to the Raiders. I’m not saying the bookies had the Browns as serious favorites before the last slate of games — their odds were +4400 before the loss to Vegas — but they now find themselves at +6500. Seven AFC teams have shorter odds than the Browns.
The Browns are ranked 24th by nERD, and we give them only a 0.5% chance of winning the first Super Bowl. But again, those are better odds than the Patriots have.