Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Team Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS NFL GAME INFO
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (14-3)
Date: Sunday, January 24, 2021
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Lambeau Field
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS MONEYLINE, SPREAD, TOTAL AND ODDS
Moneyline: Buccaneers (+150) | Packers (-178)
Spread: Buccaneers +3 (+106) | Packers -3 (-130)
Total: Over 51.5 (-114) | Under 51.5 (-106)
Super Bowl Odds: Buccaneers (+430) | Packers (+215)
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk free for up to $1,000!
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS NEWS AND NOTES
This NFC Championship Game is shaping up to be one of the best playoff games in recent memory. The NFC’s two best teams, both of which are currently playing their best football of the season, are set to meet in arctic conditions at the NFL’s most famous stadium.
Oh, and it’s Aaron Rodgers against Tom Brady.
It truly does not get better than this.
First, let’s revisit the teams’ Week 6 encounter, which was by far Green Bay’s worst performance of the season.
The Packers got out to a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, putting together drives of 54 and 80 yards while forcing Tampa to run just 10 plays between its first two drives en route to a pair of punts. It looked like a typical start for the Packers, who entered the game 4-0.
But then, things went horribly wrong for Rodgers to start the second. He threw a pick-six for the Buccaneers’ first touchdown and then tossed another interception on the third play of the Packers’ next drive that Tampa Bay returned to the Green Bay 2-yard line. Ronald Jones scored on the next play.
From there, the Packers went three and out twice, and Tampa Bay responded with a touchdown after each instance. It was 28-10 at halftime, and the game was all but over, seemingly at the snap of one’s fingers.
Rodgers played by far the worst game of his season, completing 16-of-35 passes for 160 yards. Brady went 17-of-27 for 166 yards and two touchdowns. It was Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn who combined for 155 rushing yards on 28 rushes that carried the Buccaneers’ offense.
So what can we take away from that game?
I don’t think much. Rodgers is unlikely to throw interceptions on back-to-back drives ever again, and both teams’ offenses are playing much better than they were back then.
So, where do we stand now?
According to Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA, these are the NFL’s two hottest offenses. Green Bay ranks first overall, first in Pass DVOA, and fifth in Rush DVOA, while Tampa Bay’s offense is second in Weighted DVOA, fifth in Pass DVOA, and 10th in Rush DVOA.
While the Rams didn’t have a totally healthy Aaron Donald last week, the Packers made the NFL’s best defense look subpar in the divisional round. Rodgers threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns, and the Packers’ three running backs ran for a combined 191 yards on 32 carries.
Last week was Green Bay’s ground game’s biggest test of the season, but this week’s matchup takes that crown. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks first overall in Rush DVOA, having held Antonio Gibson to 31 yards on 14 carries and containing Alvin Kamara (18 carries, 85 yards, no touchdowns) last week in New Orleans.
It’s difficult to judge how well the Bucs’ pass defense has been playing of late, mostly because of the subpar quarterbacks it has faced in the playoffs. Taylor Heinicke put forth an admirable effort, throwing for 306 yards on 44 pass attempts, while Drew Brees looked done. He averaged 3.9 yards per attempt en route to 134 passing yards.
Now they get Rodgers, who completed 73.3% of his passes for 35 touchdowns and three interceptions over the final 11 regular-season games after losing to the Bucs.
Antonio Brown could miss out due to a knee injury, which would be a blow to the Buccaneers’ offense that has been thriving thanks to Brady. Before the Saints game, Brady threw for at least 348 passing yards in each of the Bucs’ previous four games. Against New Orleans, Tampa Bay leaned on Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones’ combined 125 rushing yards.
While Green Bay’s defense ranks more toward the middle of the NFL, a couple of things are concerning to me about Tampa Bay’s offense in this game.
The Packers’ biggest defensive strength is a strong pass rush and cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mike Evans is in for a long day if Brown is out and Alexander is primarily on him, while Brady’s limited mobility will force him to get rid of the ball quickly.
There’s also a high of 24 degrees with a chance of snow in Green Bay on Sunday. Brady is used to playing in cold conditions, but this will be very different for him and the rest of the Buccaneers.
For me, the most concerning thing for the Bucs’ offense is their reliance on Brees’ three interceptions last week. Tampa Bay scored 14 points off Brees’ first two interceptions, then the third all but ended the game.
The Packers have scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven games. If they do that again, are Brady & Co. playing well enough that he can keep up with them in frigid conditions?
While Tampa Bay has won six straight games, this spread is too small for me not to take the Packers. Green Bay has won seven straight games, and five of those victories have been by at least 14 points.
While Tampa Bay is better than any of the teams that the Packers have battered of late, Green Bay is 11-6 against the spread this season, covering in (you guessed it) five of their last seven games.
I’ll play the Packers -3 and will back them up to -4. I don’t expect a lot of fluctuation in this line given the public’s affinity for both teams (and by that, I mean the Packers and Brady).
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
- Packers -3.5 (+100)
- Packers -2.5 1H (-110)
- Tom Brady under 285.5 passing yards
- Davante Adams over 89.50 receiving yards
- Aaron Rodgers is 12-6-1 in his playoff career against the spread.
- Brady is 40-17-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, including 5-3 in the playoffs outright as a dog.