This line is going down after it moved up a little bit. A good play is to tease Baltimore up to +8.5 as it offers a ton of value. They have a great offense that always leaves the back door open, and more importantly, we know Buffalo is not one of those defenses that you’re going to shut you down. The Bills are 16th in points allowed, so you can score on them. Getting more than a touchdown on a teaser seems very attractive on the Baltimore side.
Now, as far as it -2.5, it’s not a sure play with Baltimore. Buffalo is just playing too well right now, and more importantly, they played awful last week. If you watch last week’s game, they went like 1-9 or 2-10 on third downs and still won that game. They’re not going to play that bad for two weeks straight. So if they play like they’d been playing for most of the season, they should be able to beat Baltimore at home. The Ravens have now traveled three straight weeks on the road so play Baltimore at +8.5, not +2.5 this weekend.
As far as the total, the over is the stronger play. The reason is simple with all the news of bad weather, wind, snow, all that stuff we heard early in the week, the steam didn’t come in on the under. Usually, when the weather’s a factor, it will get some steam immediately, but that didn’t happen. As the weeks progressing, we’re finding out the weather isn’t as bad as originally thought. The bet is either the over or a pass, as you shouldn’t hold your breath with the under on this game.
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