Wild Card weekend was definitely that — wild — for the Houston Texans as they rallied back to defeat the Buffalo Bills 22-19. They are now on the road this Sunday for a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, a heavy home favorite coming off a first-round bye.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
- Houston Texans: +350
- Kansas City Chiefs: -430
- Houston Texans +9.5: -110
- Kansas City Chiefs -9.5: -110
- Over 45.5: -110
- Under 45.5: -110
Key Points to Consider
Head-to-Head: These two sides most recently matched up on October 13, 2019 when Houston won on the road, 31-24.
Close Call: We’ve said it before this season, but Houston is often involved in close games this season. After last week’s win, 12 of their 17 games this season have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Important to keep in mind, especially for live wagers at halftime. Houston is 9-3 in those 12 games.
On the Ground: All signs point to a convincing win from the Chiefs, but there is an opportunity for the Texans to wreak some havoc in this one on the ground. Kansas City is No. 26 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, and No. 29 in the league in opposing yards per carry. Houston is No. 8 in yards per carry, and No. 9 in rushing yards per game.
ATS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games as the listed favorite.
For the Texans, Deshaun Watson is projected to finish with 234 passing yards on 18 completions, and 31 rushing yards on 5 carries. He averages 1.9 TDs and 0.9 INTs per sim.
For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is projected to finish with 302 passing yards on 23 completions, along with 24 rushing yards on 4 carries. He averages 2.9 TDs and 0.9 INTs per sim.
Chiefs to cover.
Four-star (out of four) hot trend pick. Average margin of victory per sim is Chiefs +12.9 points. Average/final score n sims is 34-21, in favor of the Chiefs.
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