The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 11
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun — share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you’re not alone, either.
And that’s where numberFire’s oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public — and enjoy the sweat together — or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we’re here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public’s heavy investment.
Believe it or not — it’s Week 11, and the Miami Dolphins are favored on the road. They opened up this week at -2.5, and now they are basically even — at -104 odds — to win by at least four points against the Denver Broncos. But should the public believe the hype around Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s resurgent defense?
So far, they have done exactly that, placing 97% of their bets and 99% of the money on the side of the Dolphins. And one look at this year’s betting record would tell you why. According to Killer Sports, the Dolphins are 7-2 against the spread, 3-1 on the road and a cool 2-0 when favored. On the flip side, the oft-injured Broncos are likely to be without Drew Lock, which certainly won’t help their 4-3-1 record against the points. The fact that they have covered just once in the four games in which they have been home underdogs does not bode well for them, either.
Miami is getting 84% of the money to win outright, and it seems like they have a great chance to win by four or more on the road. Look for them to continue their conservative yet efficient offensive approach and ride their strong defense against an undermanned Denver offense.
In one of the most intriguing games of the week, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will leave the Lambeau tundra to face off with Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts in the friendly confines of the Lucas Oil. Surprisingly enough, though, they are solid underdogs both on the moneyline and the spread. The Colts are favored by 2.5, yet the -128 odds on the Packers with the points speaks to the public sentiment.
To this point, the Pack are drawing 91% of bets and 84% of the money on those bets going into their Week 11 showdown. The people are backing the guy who has been the better quarterback this year in what has been the better offense. Our schedule-adjusted rankings place Green Bay second in offensive efficiency, a whole 22 spots ahead of the slow-rolling Colts. Meanwhile, Indy is nine spots better defensively, but that’s not enough for them to overcome the Packers in our overall rankings — the Colts are 13th, and Green Bay is 7th.
Green Bay has lost some of its betting value in recent days following their opening moneyline of +127. In spite of that, however, they are 7-2 on the board and 6-3 against the points. They have won four of five road games and each of the two in which they have entered as road ‘dogs. Their performance backs up what the betting public is buying into this weekend.
This divisional matchup is one that intrigues bettors, DFS players and fantasy football managers alike. The 56.5-point total is the second-highest of all Week 11 games, which points to a high-scoring affair. The thing is, will it be as high-scoring as the experts think?
The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders were pegged early on with a 57.0-point total, and the over is still favored at -112 odds despite the half-point drop on the line, which has remained level across all other books. A primary factor might be the 7.0-point spread that has grown from a starting spot of 5.5 in the visiting Chiefs’ favor.
In the seven games this season in which Kansas City has been favored by at least six points, the over is an even 50% with an average total of 53 points between them and their opponents. And on the flip side, the Raiders have seen the over win out in both of the games they have played as underdogs of 6.0 points or more. One of those was a 72-point game in a 40-32 win over these Chiefs in Week 5. The Raiders have also averaged 25.7 points at home, where they have allowed an average of 33 points to visiting squads.
For those putting 99% of the money on this one to blow past the total, you should feel comfortable doing so.